2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election

2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election

← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout38.61% Decrease[1] 15.85 pp
 
Nominee Bill Lee Jason Martin
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,129,390 572,818
Percentage 64.91% 32.92%

Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Martin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
     No data

Governor before election

Bill Lee
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

The 2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Lee was re-elected to a second term with 64.9% of the vote, defeating his Democratic challenger Jason Martin. Lee improved on his performance from 2018.

The primary elections took place on August 4, 2022, with Lee and Martin winning their respective parties' nominations.[2][3]

During the general election, Lee flipped reliably Democratic Haywood County, home to Brownsville. It is one of only two remaining counties in Tennessee, along with Shelby County, with a majority African-American population. Haywood County had not voted Republican on a presidential level since 1972. Martin won only Shelby and Davidson counties. This was the first time in state history that Davidson County did not vote for the winner in a gubernatorial re-election since Tennessee began allowing governors to serve for two consecutive terms.

Voter turnout for the 2022 midterm elections in Tennessee was the lowest it had been in nearly a decade, with only 38.6% of Tennessee's registered voters turning out. This was far below the 2020 presidential election in Tennessee, which saw a turnout of 69.3%.[4][5] The last time turnout was this low in Tennessee was in the 2014 midterm elections. Tennessee's neighboring state Alabama saw a significant drop in voter turnout as well.

Bill Lee was sworn in for his second term on January 21, 2023.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Disqualified

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  • Curtis Carney, business owner[8][7]
  • Tyler Hagerman[7]
  • Patricia Morrison[7]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Bill Lee

U.S. executive branch officials

Results

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Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee (incumbent) 494,362 100.00%
Total votes 494,362 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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J. B. Smiley Jr.

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Results

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Results by county:
  Martin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Smiley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Atwater
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jason Martin 101,552 39.39%
Democratic J.B. Smiley Jr. 100,062 38.81%
Democratic Carnita Atwater 56,227 21.81%
Total votes 257,841 100.00%

Independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Disqualified

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  • Lemichael DaShaun-Wilson[25]
  • Hosie Holomon III[25]
  • Wendell Jackson[25]
  • Jake Johns[25]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[27] Solid R July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe R June 29, 2022
Politico[29] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[30] Safe R January 10, 2022
Fox News[31] Solid R May 12, 2022
538[32] Solid R August 4, 2022
Elections Daily[33] Safe R November 7, 2022

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of July 5, 2022
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bill Lee (R) $3,516,828 $3,316,034 $375,465
Jason Martin (D) $187,424 $495,649 $160,736
Source: Tennessee Registry of Election Finance[34]

Post-primary endorsements

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Jason Martin (D)

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Lee (R)
Jason
Martin (D)
Other Undecided
RABA Research[41] July 21–31, 2022 549 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 28% 6% 14%
Hypothetical polling

Bill Lee vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Lee (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Vanderbilt University[42] April 26 – May 14, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 39% 12%

Results

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2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Lee (incumbent) 1,129,390 64.91% +5.55
Democratic Jason Martin 572,818 32.92% −5.63
Independent John Gentry 15,395 0.89% N/A
Independent Constance Every 10,277 0.59% N/A
Independent Deborah Rouse 3,772 0.22% N/A
Independent Rick Tyler 2,380 0.14% N/A
Independent Charles Van Morgan 1,862 0.11% N/A
Independent Basil Marceaux 1,568 0.09% N/A
Independent Alfred O'Neil 1,216 0.07% N/A
Independent Michael Scantland 815 0.05% N/A
Write-In Lemichael D. Wilson 386 0.02% N/A
Write-In Charles Carney 2 0.00% N/A
Write-In Stephen C. Maxwell 1 0.00% N/A
Write-In Kameron Parker Scott 0 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,739,882 100.00%
Turnout 1,756,397 38.61% −15.85%
Registered electors 4,549,183
Republican hold

By county

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State Senate district results 27–6
State House district results 77–22

By congressional district

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Lee won eight of nine congressional districts.[45]

District Lee Martin Representative
1st 78.0% 19.9% Diana Harshbarger
2nd 66.8% 31.3% Tim Burchett
3rd 68.8% 29.1% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 72.1% 25.7% Scott DesJarlais
5th 58.6% 39.6% Jim Cooper (117th Congress)
Andy Ogles (118th Congress)
6th 65.8% 31.9% John W. Rose
7th 59.6% 37.9% Mark E. Green
8th 73.2% 25.0% David Kustoff
9th 32.6% 64.7% Steve Cohen

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

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  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2022". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ "2022 Midterm Election Events Calendar". www.cnn.com. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  3. ^ "Doctor critical of lax COVID rules wins Tenn. Dem gov race". AP NEWS. August 5, 2022. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
  4. ^ McCullough, Erin (November 11, 2022). "Less than 40% of registered voters in Tennessee turned out for the 2022 midterms". WKRN News 2. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  5. ^ Gonzales, Tony (November 10, 2022). "Tennessee voter turnout far below 2018 showing". 90.3 WPLM News. Retrieved December 30, 2022.
  6. ^ Ebert, Joel. "'I love this job': Bill Lee says he'll seek a second term as Tennessee governor". The Tennessean. The USA Today Network. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
  7. ^ a b c d "Tennessee Petitions". TNSOS. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
  8. ^ "New PAC Targets Gov. Lee's Re-Election Bid". Across Tennessee, TN Patch. April 29, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  9. ^ Rau, Nate (March 23, 2022). "Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles enters District 5 race". Axios. Archived from the original on March 28, 2022. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  10. ^ "Nikki Haley endorses Republican Governor". ABC News. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
  11. ^ Murray, Stephanie (August 16, 2021). "Redistricting looms in Texas". Politico. Archived from the original on August 16, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  12. ^ "August 4, 2022 Republican Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  13. ^ "Doctor eyes run for governor". Nashville Post. July 27, 2021. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ^ "Sumner County doctor Jason Martin announces gubernatorial campaign | News | wsmv.com". www.wsmv.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  15. ^ "First Democratic Candidate for Governor". Tri-State Defender. April 8, 2021. Retrieved July 29, 2021.
  16. ^ "Memphis City Councilman JB Smiley Jr. Enters Democratic Race for Tennessee Governor". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  17. ^ "Democrats running for governor make it official". Nashville Post. August 23, 2021. Retrieved August 26, 2021.
  18. ^ ""I'm suspending my campaign for governor."". Facebook. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  19. ^ "New PAC targets Lee's re-election bid". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  20. ^ "I'm so excited y'all, @jasonbmartin is exactly the leadership TN families need now!". Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2021.
  21. ^ "Memphis congressman endorses in '22 gubernatorial primary". Nashville Post. October 13, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  22. ^ "Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris endorses Smiley for governor". May 25, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2022.
  23. ^ "20-Plus Tennessee Leaders Announce Support for JB Smiley, Jr. for Governor". The Tennessee Tribune. October 21, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  24. ^ "August 4, 2022 Democratic Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  25. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Petition Information". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
  26. ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  27. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  28. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  29. ^ "Tennessee Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  30. ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  31. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  32. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived from the original on June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  33. ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  34. ^ "Search Reports". Tennessee Registry of Election Finance.
  35. ^ "NFIB Tennessee PAC Endorses Bill Lee for Second Term as Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. September 15, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  36. ^ "Tennessee Endorsements". National Right to Life. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  37. ^ "Tennessee Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  38. ^ "Bill Lee's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  39. ^ "General Election Endorsements". Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  40. ^ "Tennessee - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  41. ^ RABA Research
  42. ^ Vanderbilt University
  43. ^ State of Tennessee General Election Results Governor, November 8, 2022, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  44. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial Results by County" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
  45. ^ "Dra 2020".
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Official campaign websites