2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election

2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election

← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout61.0% (Decrease2.6 pp)
 
Nominee Tim Walz Scott Jensen
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Running mate Peggy Flanagan Matt Birk
Popular vote 1,312,349 1,119,941
Percentage 52.27% 44.61%

Walz:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Jensen:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%

Governor before election

Tim Walz
Democratic (DFL)

Elected Governor

Tim Walz
Democratic (DFL)

The 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican nominee, physician and former state Senator Scott Jensen,[1] winning a second term.[2]

Jensen's advantage in rural Greater Minnesota could not overcome Walz's large lead in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Walz won the election by a comfortable 7.7% margin, narrowly larger than Biden's 7.1% margin in 2020 but smaller than his own previous record of 11.4%. With his win, Walz gave the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party its fourth consecutive gubernatorial victory, the most in the party's history.[3] Furthermore, the DFL held the State House and flipped the State Senate, gaining a trifecta for the first time since 2012.[4]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Walz
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Tim Walz (incumbent) 416,973 96.54%
Democratic (DFL) Ole Savior 14,950 3.46%
Total votes 431,923 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Caucuses and conventions

[edit]

Caucus

[edit]

The caucuses took place on February 1, 2022. A caucus is a local meeting where all who intend to vote for the Republican Party are able to select their precinct leadership, participate in a straw poll for governor, write and pass resolutions, and elect delegates to their local Basic Political Organizational Unit (BPOU). Those who were not elected BPOU delegates could become alternates and fill in for delegates who cannot attend the BPOU convention.[38]

BPOU conventions

[edit]

A BPOU has boundaries based on the county or state senate district a voter resides in. The majority of these took place in March 2022. Elected delegates of each BPOU attended a convention relating to their district to vote on the resolutions passed at the caucus, complete party business, listen to candidates, and elect delegates to the state convention and their corresponding U.S. House District convention.

State convention

[edit]

The Republican State Convention was held on May 13–14, 2022, in Rochester. 2,200 delegates were elected statewide to decide the Minnesota Republican Party's endorsement in all statewide offices. The endorsed candidate receives the party's backing, including money and resources, ahead of the August 9 primary.[39] Only one Republican, incumbent governor Arne Carlson in 1994, has won the primary without the party's endorsement. (Two Democrats, Mark Dayton and Tim Walz, won the Democratic primary against endorsed candidates.)[40]

At the convention, Scott Jensen won the endorsement with 65% of the vote on the ninth ballot, defeating Kendall Qualls. Mike Murphy, Paul Gazelka, and Neil Shah were eliminated on earlier ballots. All the candidates who contested the endorsement pledged to forego the primary if not endorsed.[40]

Qualls soon honored his pledge by announcing his plans to "return to private life."[41] Rich Stanek, the only major candidate who did not compete for the endorsement, did not file for the primary, leaving Jensen without major opposition.[24] He faced two minor candidates in the August primary.

Endorsements

[edit]
Scott Jensen

Newspapers

  • Dassel-Cokato Enterprise Dispatch[42]
  • Delano Herald-Journal[42]
  • Winsted Herald-Journal[42]

Organizations

  • Stand for Health Freedom[43]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Jensen
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Jensen 288,499 89.31%
Republican Joyce Lynne Lacey 21,308 6.60%
Republican Bob "Again" Carney Jr. 13,213 4.09%
Total votes 323,020 100.0%

Independents and others

[edit]

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Darrell Paulsen, business consultant, nominee for lieutenant governor in 1998[7]
    • Edwin Engelmann, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Patterson
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Paulsen
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  No votes
Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Grassroots—LC Steve Patterson 1,003 59.14%
Grassroots—LC Darrell Paulsen 693 40.86%
Total votes 1,696 100.00%
[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  McCaskel
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Wright
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  No votes
Legal Marijuana Now primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Legal Marijuana Now James McCaskel 1,461 51.86%
Legal Marijuana Now Chris Wright 1,356 48.14%
Total votes 2,817 100.0%

Other parties

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Cory Hepola (withdrew)

Organizations

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

The election's central issues were the economy, rising crime, Walz's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, education, and abortion access following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

Walz campaigned on his first-term accomplishments, such as middle-class tax cuts, while making abortion rights a prominent focus of the campaign and attacking Jensen on abortion and his COVID-19 skepticism. Jensen attacked Walz over his COVID-19 policies, crime in the Twin Cities, inflation and gas prices, and education performance.[54]

Jensen was criticized for promoting the hoax that schools provided litter boxes to students who identify as furries.[55][56]

Debates

[edit]
2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican DFL
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Scott Jensen Tim Walz
1 August 3, 2022 Minnesota Farmfest Blois Olson [57] P P
2 October 18, 2022 KTTC/Gray Television Caitlin Alexander, Justin Betti,

Stacy Steinhagen, Dan Wolfe

[58] P P
3 October 23, 2022 KSTP/Hubbard Broadcasting Lindsey Brown, Tom Hauser,

Laura Lee, Peter Callaghan

[59] P A
4 October 28, 2022 Minnesota Public Radio[60] Mike Mulcahy [61] P P
5 November 4, 2022 Twin Cities PBS - Almanac Eric Eskola, Cathy Wurzer [62] P A

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[63] Likely D March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[64] Lean D November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely D October 12, 2022
Politico[66] Lean D April 1, 2022
RCP[67] Tossup June 10, 2022
Fox News[68] Lean D May 12, 2022
538[69] Likely D October 17, 2022
Elections Daily[70] Likely D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Scott Jensen (R)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Scott
Jensen (R)
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[95] Oct. 10–30, 2022 Nov. 1, 2022 48.0% 43.7% 8.3% Walz +4.3
FiveThirtyEight[96] Sep. 24 – Oct. 30, 2022 Nov. 4, 2022 49.7% 40.9% 9.4% Walz +8.8
Average 48.9% 42.3% 8.8% Walz +6.6

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Scott
Jensen (R)
Hugh
McTavish (I-A)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[97][A] Oct. 26–30, 2022 836 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 43% 2% 4%
St. Cloud State University[98] Oct. 10–30, 2022 235 (A) ± 8% 56% 40% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[99] Oct. 17–19, 2022 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 45.8% 46.3% 1.4% 2.5%[c] 3.9%
Embold Research[100][B] Oct. 10–14, 2022 1,585 (LV) ± 2.6% 47.0% 42.4% 1.3% 3.3%[d] 6.0%
SurveyUSA[101] Sep. 30 – Oct. 3, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 4% 7%
Cygnal (R)[102][C] Sep. 24–26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47.6% 44.2% 0.4% 3.0%[e] 4.8%
Trafalgar Group (R)[103] Sep. 14, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47.7% 45.0% 0.8% 1.7%[f] 4.9%
Mason-Dixon[104] Sep. 12–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48.0% 41.0% 0.8% 10.3%
SurveyUSA[105] Aug. 30 – Sep. 4, 2022 562 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 33% 4% 12%
Gravis Marketing (I-A)[106][D] Aug. 17–19, 2022 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 53% 36% 6% 5%
Cygnal (R)[107][C] Jul. 18–19, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 49.8% 45.6% 4.7%
Change Research[108][B] Jun. 3–8, 2022 1,551 (LV) ± 2.6% 41.8% 39.8% 2.7% 6.6%[g] 9.0%
SurveyUSA[109] May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 39% 4% 13%
SurveyUSA[110] Jan. 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 43% 40% 4% 13%
SurveyUSA[111] Dec. 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 36% 5% 11%
Hypothetical polling

Tim Walz vs. Michelle Benson

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Michelle
Benson (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[110] January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 37% 8% 10%
SurveyUSA[111] December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 35% 4% 14%

Tim Walz vs. Paul Gazelka

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Paul
Gazelka (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[109] May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 36% 7% 15%
SurveyUSA[110] January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 37% 6% 15%
SurveyUSA[111] December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 34% 5% 14%

Tim Walz vs. Mike Marti

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Mike
Marti (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[111] December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 34% 3% 15%

Tim Walz vs. Mike Murphy

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Mike
Murphy (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[109] May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 35% 4% 15%
SurveyUSA[110] January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 44% 35% 7% 14%
SurveyUSA[111] December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 36% 5% 12%

Tim Walz vs. Kendall Qualls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Kendall
Qualls (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[109] May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 34% 4% 15%
SurveyUSA[110] January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 43% 35% 6% 16%

Tim Walz vs. Neil Shah

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Neil
Shah (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[109] May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 34% 6% 16%
SurveyUSA[110] January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 34% 7% 14%
SurveyUSA[111] December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 31% 5% 16%

Tim Walz vs. Rich Stanek

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Rich
Stanek (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[109] May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 37% 5% 11%

Tim Walz vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Change Research[112] August 28–31, 2021 1,945 (RV) ± 2.5% 46% 44% 10%

Results

[edit]
2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election[113]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL)
1,312,349 52.27% −1.57%
Republican 1,119,941 44.61% +2.18%
Legal Marijuana Now
  • James McCaskel
  • David Sandbeck
29,346 1.17% N/A
Grassroots—LC
  • Steve Patterson
  • Matt Huff
22,599 0.90% −1.75%
Independence
  • Hugh McTavish
  • Mike Winter
18,156 0.72% N/A
Socialist Workers
  • Gabrielle Prosser
  • Kevin Dwire
7,241 0.29% N/A
Write-in 1,029 0.04% ±0.0%
Total votes 2,510,661 100.0%
Turnout 2,525,873 61.01%
Registered electors 4,140,218
Democratic (DFL) hold

By county

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Walz and Jensen each won four of eight congressional districts, all of which voted for the same party in the simultaneous House Elections.[114]

District Walz Jensen Representative
1st 45% 52% Brad Finstad
2nd 53% 45% Angie Craig
3rd 59% 38% Dean Phillips
4th 68% 29% Betty McCollum
5th 81% 16% Ilhan Omar
6th 40% 57% Tom Emmer
7th 31% 65% Michelle Fischbach
8th 44% 52% Pete Stauber

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ McCaskel with 1.2%, Patterson with 0.9%, and Prosser with 0.4%
  4. ^ McCaskel (LMN) with 1.4%, Prosser (SW) with 1.0%, and Patterson (GLC) with 0.9%
  5. ^ McCaskel (LMN) with 1.2%, Prosser (SW) with 1.2%, and Patterson (GLC) with 0.6%
  6. ^ McCaskel with 1.4%, Patterson with 0.2%, and Prosser with 0.1%
  7. ^ "The candidate from either one of the legalize marijuana parties (Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots Legalize Cannabis)"

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by KSTP-TV
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by MinnPost
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Jensen's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by McTavish's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Minnesota Governor Election Results". The New York Times. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  2. ^ "Minnesota election results: Walz re-elected governor". Fox 9 News. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ^ Ihekoronye, Hannah (2022-11-09). "Minnesota governor: Walz wins after sharp-elbowed race". Sahan Journal. Retrieved 2022-11-16.
  4. ^ "Minnesota Democrats win Capitol 'trifecta'". MPR News. 2022-11-09. Retrieved 2023-06-18.
  5. ^ "Preparing For Re-Election Push, Walz Campaign Announces It's Hiring Staff, Breaking Fundraising Records". WCCO-TV. 2020-02-02. Retrieved 2020-06-28.
  6. ^ a b "Gov. Walz makes it official: He's running for a second term". MPR News. October 19, 2021.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Candidate Filings – 2022 State General Election". Retrieved 10 Jun 2022.
  8. ^ "olesavior.org". Retrieved 10 Jun 2022.
  9. ^ a b c d "2022 State Canvassing Board Certificate State Primary and State of Minnesota Canvassing Report". Minnesota Secretary of State.
  10. ^ Croman, John (2020-05-14). "Jensen wins GOP endorsement for Minnesota governor". Kare11. Retrieved 2020-05-14. All had pledged to honor the party's endorsement and forego the right to run in the Aug. 9 GOP primary, assuming there was no deadlock.
  11. ^ "Super Bowl Champ to be Jensen's running mate for MN governor". ABC 6 NEWS. 2022-03-04. Retrieved 2022-03-05.
  12. ^ "Vote Bob Again". Retrieved 10 Jun 2022.
  13. ^ "Joyce Lacey for Governor". Retrieved 10 Jun 2022.
  14. ^ Tribune, Emma Nelson Star. "Michelle Benson bows out of Minnesota governor's race". Star Tribune. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
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  16. ^ "Gazelka on run for governor: "I'm at least considering it."". WCCO. February 8, 2021.
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  19. ^ "Mike Marti to Suspend Campaign for Governor". Facebook.com. Mike Marti. December 13, 2021. Retrieved December 13, 2021. Thank you to everyone who has supported our campaign. While I have enjoyed campaigning across our beautiful state and getting to know so many of the delegates, I feel it is best at this time to suspend my campaign for Governor.
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  78. ^ "EDITORIAL | Star Tribune Editorial Board endorsement: Re-elect Tim Walz for steady leadership". Star Tribune.
  79. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Tim Walz's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  80. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Governor Tim Walz and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign. July 14, 2022.
  81. ^ "Political Endorsements — Inter Faculty Organization". www.ifo.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  82. ^ "IUOE Local 49 Endorses Walz for Reelection". local49.org. September 1, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  83. ^ "DFL Party Endorses Incumbents Walz, Flanagan, Blaha, Ellison". CBS News. May 20, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  84. ^ "Minnesota Medical Association - MEDPAC Endorses Walz for Governor". www.mnmed.org. Archived from the original on October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  85. ^ "Nurses endorse candidates who will put Patients Before Profits in statewide executive races". mnnurses.org. July 21, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  86. ^ "Donald Trump endorses Scott Jensen for Minnesota governor". www.duluthnewstribune.com. October 26, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  87. ^ "Lt. Governor Candidate Matt Birk Visits Crookston Municipal Airport on "Heal Minnesota" Plane Tour - Krox". November 2022. Archived from the original on November 4, 2022. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
  88. ^ Hanley, Ashley (October 27, 2022). "National political group bringing Iowa Governor Reynolds to MN to campaign for Jensen". KTOE AM 1420 - 102.7 FM. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
  89. ^ "Endorsement: Minnesota should hire Dr. Scott Jensen for next governor". Rochester Post Bulletin. October 22, 2022.
  90. ^ "Walz discusses higher education Thursday, Jensen endorsed by Minn. Police & Peace Officers Association". kstp.com. October 6, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  91. ^ "NFIB MN PAC Endorses Dr. Scott Jensen for Minnesota Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. September 13, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  92. ^ "Minnesota Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  93. ^ "Scott Jensen's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  94. ^ "Dr. Scott Jensen wins GOP endorsement for Minnesota governor". Associated Press. May 14, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  95. ^ Real Clear Politics
  96. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  97. ^ SurveyUSA
  98. ^ St. Cloud State University
  99. ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
  100. ^ Embold Research
  101. ^ SurveyUSA
  102. ^ Cygnal (R)
  103. ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
  104. ^ Mason-Dixon
  105. ^ SurveyUSA
  106. ^ Gravis Marketing (I-A)
  107. ^ Cygnal (R)
  108. ^ Change Research
  109. ^ a b c d e f SurveyUSA
  110. ^ a b c d e f SurveyUSA
  111. ^ a b c d e f SurveyUSA
  112. ^ Change Research
  113. ^ Simon, Steve (November 29, 2022). "2022 State Canvassing Board Certificate". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on April 22, 2025. Retrieved May 13, 2025.
  114. ^ "Home - Election Results".
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Official campaign websites