Draft:Timeline of the far future (better version)

Artist's concept of the Earth 5–7.5 billion years from now,

when the Sun has become a red giant

Timeline of the far future

While the future cannot be predicted with

certainty, present understanding in various

scientific fields allows for the prediction of

some far-future events, if only in the broadest

outline.[1][2][3][4]

These

fields

include

astrophysics, which studies how planets and

stars form, interact and die; particle physics,

which has revealed how matter behaves at the

smallest scales; evolutionary biology, which

studies how life evolves over time; plate

tectonics, which shows how continents shift

over millennia; and sociology, which

examines how human societies and cultures

evolve.

These timelines begin at the start of the 4th

millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until the furthest and most remote reaches of future time. They

include alternative future events that address unresolved scientific questions, such as whether humans

will become extinct, whether the Earth survives when the Sun expands to become a red giant and whether

proton decay will be the eventual end of all matter in the universe.

All projections of the future of Earth, the Solar System and the universe must account for the second law

of thermodynamics, which states that entropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over

time.[5] Stars will eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will

likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, and possibly Earth)

but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun will be reduced to the size of a

white dwarf, and the outer planets and their moons will continue to orbit this diminutive solar remnant.

This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-477L and the Jupiter-sized

exoplanet orbiting it.[6][7][8]

Long after the death of the Solar System, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate

under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic

particles.[9] Current data suggests that the universe has a flat geometry (or very close to flat) and will

therefore not collapse in on itself after a finite time.[10] This infinite future could allow for the occurrence

of massively improbable events, such as the formation of Boltzmann brains. [11]

Keys

Earth, the Solar System and the universe

Astronomy and astrophysics

Geology and planetary science

Biology

Particle physics

Mathematics

Technology and culture

Years from now

Event

1,000

Due to the lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of a solar

day will be 1 ⁄30 of an SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap

second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month,

or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some

or all months. [12]

1,100

As Earth's poles precess, Gamma Cephei replaces Polaris as the northern pole

star. [13]

5,000

As one of the long-term effects of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will have

completely melted. [14][15]

10,000

If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to

endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt

completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 m. [16] One of the potential long-term

effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the West

Antarctic Ice Sheet.

10,000

If humans were extinct, Earth would be midway through a stable warm period with

the next ice age due in 10,000 years, but if humans survived and did impact their

planet, the greenhouse gas emissions would disrupt this natural cycle. [17] According

to their research, the carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels could cause

the planet to repeatedly skip glacial periods for at least the next 500,000 years. [18]

10,000 – 1

million [note 1]

The red supergiant stars Betelgeuse and Antares will likely have exploded as

supernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in

daylight. [19][20][21][22][23]

11,700

As Earth's poles precess, Vega, the fifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the

northern pole star. [24] Although Earth cycles through many different naked eye

northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest.

11,000–15,000

By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be

mirrored, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This

means that the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they

are today, as it will face away from the Sun at Earth's perihelion and towards the Sun

at aphelion; the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere will be more extreme, as it

experiences more pronounced seasonal variation because of a higher percentage of

land. [25]

15,000

The oscillating tilt of Earth's poles will have moved the North African Monsoon far

enough north to change the climate of the Sahara back into a tropical one such as it

had 5,000–10,000 years ago. [26][27]

17,000 [note 1]

The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" supervolcanic eruption

large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of pyroclastic material. [28][29]

25,000

The northern polar ice cap of Mars could recede as the planet reaches a warming

peak of its northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year perihelion precession

aspect of its Milankovitch cycle. [30][31]

36,000

The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming

the closest star to the Sun. [32] It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first

Alpha Centauri (again) and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars [32] (see timeline).

50,000

According to Berger and Loutre, the current interglacial period will end, [33] sending

the Earth back into a glacial period of the current ice age, regardless of the effects of

anthropogenic global warming.

However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic

climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected

glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially

skipping it entirely. [34]Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie and

will therefore cease to exist.[35]

The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased

by post-glacial rebound and erosion.[36]

50,000

Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be

one SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have

to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially

lengthened by one SI second. [12]

60,000

It is possible that the current cooling trend might be interrupted by an interstadial

phase (a warmer period), with the next glacial maximum reached only in about 100

kyr AP. [37]

100,000

The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which results from their

movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations

unrecognizable. [38]

100,000 [note 1]

The red hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a

supernova.

[39]

100,000

Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally

spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border,

recovering from the Laurentide Ice Sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a

migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this

time has not prevented this. [40] (However, humans have already introduced non�

native invasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a

shock to the regional ecosystem.)

100,000 – 10

million [note 1]

Cupid and Belina, Moons of Uranus, will likely have collided. [41]

100,000

According to Berger and Loutre, the next glacial maximum is expected to be most

intense, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming. [37]

> 100,000

As one of the long-term effects of global warming, ten percent of anthropogenic

carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere. [42]

250,000

Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor

seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic

island. [43]

c. 300,000 [note 1]

At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the Wolf–Rayet star WR 104

may explode in a supernova. There is a small chance that WR 104 is spinning fast

enough to produce a gamma-ray burst (GRB), and an even smaller chance that such

a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth. [44][45]

500,000 [note 1]

Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming

that it is not averted. [46]

500,000

The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded

completely. [47]

600,000 [note 1]

The estimated time for the third super-eruption of the Toba supervolcano by this

date. The first super-eruption occurred around 840,000 years ago, after 1.4 million

years of magma input, whereas magma fed the second super-eruption at 75,000

years. [48][49]

1 million

Meteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind,

will have worn away. [50]

1 million [note 1]

Desdemona and Cressida, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided. [51]The stellar system Eta Carinae will likely have exploded in a

supernova.

[52]

1.29 ± 0.04 million

The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051 parsecs (0.1663 light-years; 10,520

astronomical units) [53] to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally

perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the

Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar

System. [54]

2 million

The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused

ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine

ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago

took a similar length of time. [55]

2 million+

The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into

a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River. [56]

2.7 million

The average orbital half-life of current centaurs, which are unstable because of

gravitational interactions with the several outer planets. [57] See predictions for

notable centaurs.

3 million

Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is

expected to be one minute longer than it is today. [12]

6 million

Estimated time for Comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina), one of the longest period comets

known to return to the inner Solar System, after having travelled in its orbit out to its

aphelion 66,600 AU (1.053 light-years) from the Sun and back. [58]

10 million

The Red Sea will flood the widening East African Rift valley, causing a new ocean

basin to divide the continent of Africa [59] and the African Plate into the newly formed

Nubian Plate and the Somali Plate.

The Indian Plate will advance into Tibet by 180 km (110 mi). Nepali

territory, whose boundaries are defined by the Himalayan peaks and

the plains of India, will cease to exist.[60]

10 million

The estimated time for the full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene

extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events. [61]

Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will

have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many

clades gradually evolving into new forms.[62][63]

15 million

An estimated 694 stars will approach the Solar System to less than 5 parsecs. Of

these, 26 have a good probability to come within 1.0 parsec (3.3 light-years) and 7

within 0.5 parsecs (1.6 light-years). [64]

20 million

The Strait of Gibraltar will have closed due to subduction and a Ring of Fire will form

in the Atlantic, similar to that in the Pacific. [65][66]

50 million

The maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars. [67]

50 million

According to Christopher Scotese, the movement of the San Andreas Fault will

cause the Gulf of California to flood into the California Central Valley. This will form a

new inland sea on the West Coast of North America, causing the current locations of

Los Angeles and San Francisco in California to merge. [68] The Californian coast will

begin to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench. [69]

Africa's collision with Eurasia will close the Mediterranean Basin and

create a mountain range similar to the Himalayas. [70]The Appalachian Mountains peaks will have largely worn away, [71]

weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise

as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.[72]

50–60 million

The Canadian Rockies will have worn away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff

units. [73] The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat

slower rate. [74]

50–400 million

The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves. [75]

80 million

The Big Island will have become the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink

beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new

Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place. [76]

100 million [note 1]

Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that

triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming this is not averted. [77]

100 million

According to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new

subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Americas will begin to

converge back toward Africa. [68]

Upper estimate for the lifespan of Saturn's rings in their current

state.[78]

110 million

The Sun's luminosity will have increased by one percent. [79]

125 million

According to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, the

Atlantic Ocean is predicted to stop widening and begin to shrink as the Mid-Atlantic

Ridge seafloor spreading gives way to subduction. In this scenario, the mid-ocean

ridge between South America and Africa will probably be subducted first; the Atlantic

Ocean is predicted to narrow as a result of subduction beneath the Americas. The

Indian Ocean is also predicted to be smaller due to northward subduction of oceanic

crust into the Central Indian trench. Antarctica is expected to split in two and shift

northwards, colliding with Madagascar and Australia, enclosing a remnant of the

Indian Ocean, which Scotese calls the "Medi-Pangaean Sea". [80][81]

180 million

Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer

than it is today. [12]

230 million

Prediction of the orbits of the Solar System's planets is impossible over time spans

greater than this, due to the limitations of Lyapunov time. [82]

240 million

From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic

Center. [83]

250 million

According to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West

Coast of North America, the coast of California will collide with Alaska. [68]

250–350 million

All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent. [68][84] Four potential

arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea,

Pangaea Proxima and Aurica. This will likely result in a glacial period, lowering sea

levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures. [85][86]

> 250 million

The supercontinent's formation, thanks to a combination of continentality increasing

distance from the ocean, an increase in volcanic activity resulting in atmospheric

CO2 at double current levels, increased interspecific competition, and a 2.5 percent

increase in solar flux, is likely to trigger an extinction event comparable to the Great

Dying 250 million years ago. Mammals in particular are unlikely to survive. [87][88]

300 million

Due to a shift in the equatorial Hadley cells to roughly 40° north and south, the

amount of arid land will increase by 25%. [88]300–600 million

The estimated time for Venus's mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then,

over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is

recycled. [89]

350 million

According to the extroversion model first developed by Paul F. Hoffman, subduction

ceases in the Pacific Ocean Basin. [84][90]

400–500 million

The supercontinent (Pangaea Proxima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely

have rifted apart. [84] This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to the

Cretaceous period. [86]

500 million [note 1]

The estimated time until a gamma-ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova,

occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's

ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is

correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction

event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth

to have such effect. [91]

600 million

Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses

are no longer possible. [92]

500–600 million

The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher

luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the

ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden,

causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate

completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere,

carbon dioxide levels begin to fall. [93] By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to

the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that use C3

photosynthesis (roughly 99 percent of present-day species) will die. [94] The

extinction of C3 plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop.

It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide

level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C3 herbaceous plants, followed

by deciduous forests, evergreen broad-leaf forests, and finally evergreen conifers. [88]

Note: A 2024 paper by RJ Graham et al. argues that silicate

weathering is far less-temperature-dependent than initially thought,

and that falling carbon dioxide levels are unlikely to lead to the death

of life on Earth before the Sun's increasing temperature finally ends it

in +- 1.6 billion years.[95]

500–800 million

As Earth begins to warm, and carbon dioxide levels fall, plants—and, by extension,

animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less

carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to

desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near

the beginning of the moist greenhouse. [88] The decrease in plant life will result in less

oxygen in the atmosphere, allowing for more DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation to

reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the

atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become

increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals

would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler

temperatures. [96] Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground.

These creatures would become active during the polar night and aestivate during the

polar day due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a

barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans. [96]

500–800 million

As pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death

of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest

time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's

core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into a water world. This would, in

turn, likely cause the extinction of animal life on Earth. [96]800–900 million

Carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer

possible. [94] Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and

the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of

deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on

live plants will disappear shortly afterward. [88] At most, animal life could survive

about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of

animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then

smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles and,

finally, invertebrates. [93] In the book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors

Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee state that some animal life may be able to

survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out. [97] The

first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish and then,

finally, invertebrates. [93] The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not

depend on living plants, such as termites, or those near hydrothermal vents, such as

worms of the genus Riftia. [88] The only life left on the Earth after this will be single�

celled organisms.

1 billion [note 2]

27% of the ocean's mass will have been subducted into the mantle. If this were to

continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day

surface water would be subducted. [98]

1 billion

By this point, the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy will have been completely

consumed by the Milky Way. [99]

1.1 billion

The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface

temperatures to reach an average of around 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere

will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the

oceans. [93][100] This would cause plate tectonics to stop completely, if not already

stopped before this time. [101] Pockets of water may still be present at the poles,

allowing abodes for simple life. [102][103]

1.2 billion

High estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is

possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising

temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on. [104][105][106]

1.3 billion

Eukaryotic life dies out on Earth due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes

remain. [97]

1.5 billion

Callisto is captured into the mean-motion resonance of the other Galilean moons of

Jupiter, completing the 1:2:4:8 chain. (Currently only Io, Europa and Ganymede

participate in the 1:2:4 resonance.) [107]

1.5–1.6 billion

The Sun's rising luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move

outwards; as carbon dioxide rises in Mars's atmosphere, its surface temperature

increases to levels akin to Earth during the ice age. [97][108]

1.5–4.5 billion

Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from the Earth to the point where it

can no longer stabilize Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander

becomes chaotic and extreme, leading to dramatic shifts in the planet's climate due

to the changing axial tilt. [109]

1.6 billion

Lower estimate until all remaining life, which by now had been reduced to colonies of

unicellular organisms in isolated microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes and

caves, goes extinct. [93][97][110]

< 2 billion

The first close passage of the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way. [111]

2 billion

High estimate until the Earth's oceans evaporate if the atmospheric pressure were to

decrease via the nitrogen cycle. [112]

2.55 billion

The Sun will have reached a maximum surface temperature of 5,820 K (5,550 °C;

10,020 °F). From then on, it will become gradually cooler while its luminosity will

continue to increase. [100]2.8 billion

Earth's surface temperature will reach around 420 K (147 °C; 296 °F), even at the

poles. [93][110]

2.8 billion

High estimate until all remaining Earth life goes extinct. [93][110]

3–4 billion

The Earth's core freezes if the inner core continues to grow in size, based on its

current growth rate of 1 mm (0.039 in) in diameter per year. [113][114][115] Without its

liquid outer core, Earth's magnetosphere shuts down, [116] and solar winds gradually

deplete the atmosphere. [117]

c. 3 billion [note 1]

There is a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance that the Earth will be ejected into interstellar

space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1-in-300-billion chance that it

will be both ejected into space and captured by another star around this point. If this

were to happen, any remaining life on Earth could potentially survive for far longer if

it survived the interstellar journey. [118]

3.3 billion [note 1]

There is a roughly one percent chance that Jupiter's gravity may make Mercury's

orbit so eccentric as to cross Venus's orbit by this time, sending the inner Solar

System into chaos. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun,

being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Venus or Earth. [119][120]

3.5–4.5 billion

The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 35–40%, causing all water currently

present in lakes and oceans to evaporate, if it had not done so earlier. The

greenhouse effect caused by the massive, water-rich atmosphere will result in

Earth's surface temperature rising to 1,400 K (1,130 °C; 2,060 °F), which is hot

enough to melt some surface rock. [101][112][121][122]

3.6 billion

Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially

disintegrating into a planetary ring system similar to Saturn's. [123]

4.5 billion

Mars reaches the same solar flux as that of the Earth when it first formed 4.5 billion

years ago from today. [108]

< 5 billion

The Andromeda Galaxy will have fully merged with the Milky Way, forming an

elliptical galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda". [111] There is also a small chance of the Solar

System being ejected. [111][124] The planets of the Solar System will almost certainly

not be disturbed by these events. [125][126][127]

5.4 billion

The Sun, having now exhausted its hydrogen supply, leaves the main sequence and

begins evolving into a red giant. [128]

6.5 billion

Mars reaches the same solar radiation flux as Earth today, after which it will suffer a

similar fate to the Earth as described above. [108]

6.6 billion

The Sun may experience a helium flash, resulting in its core becoming as bright as

the combined luminosity of all the stars in the Milky Way galaxy. [129]

7.5 billion

Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding red giant Sun. [108]

7.59 billion

The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the

Sun reaches the top of its red giant phase. [128][note 3] Before the final collision, the

Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most

of which falls to the Earth's surface. [130]

During this era, Saturn's moon Titan may reach surface temperatures

necessary to support life.[131]

7.9 billion

The Sun reaches the top of the red-giant branch of the Hertzsprung–Russell

diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value. [132] In

the process, Mercury, Venus and Earth are likely destroyed. [128]

8 billion

The Sun becomes a carbon–oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05% of its present

mass. [128][133][134][135] At this point, if the Earth survives, temperatures on the

surface of the planet, as well as the other planets in the Solar System, will begindropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does

today.

22.3 billion

The estimated time until the end of the universe in a Big Rip, assuming a model of

dark energy with w = −1.5. [136][137] If the density of dark energy is less than −1, then

the universe's expansion will continue to accelerate and the observable universe will

grow ever sparser. Around 200 million years before the Big Rip, galaxy clusters like

the Local Group or the Sculptor Group will be destroyed; 60 million years before the

Big Rip, all galaxies will begin to lose stars around their edges and will completely

disintegrate in another 40 million years; three months before the Big Rip, star

systems will become gravitationally unbound, and planets will fly off into the rapidly

expanding universe; thirty minutes before the Big Rip, planets, stars, asteroids and

even extreme objects like neutron stars and black holes will evaporate into atoms;

one hundred zeptoseconds (10 −19 seconds) before the Big Rip, atoms will break

apart. Ultimately, once the Rip reaches the Planck scale, cosmic strings would be

disintegrated as well as the fabric of spacetime itself. The universe would enter into a

"rip singularity" when all non-zero distances become infinitely large. Whereas a

"crunch singularity" involves all matter being infinitely concentrated, in a "rip

singularity", all matter is infinitely spread out. [138] However, observations of galaxy

cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that the true value of w is

c. −0.991, meaning the Big Rip is unlikely to occur. [139]

50 billion

If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become

tidally locked, with each showing only one face to the other. [140][141] Thereafter, the

tidal action of the white dwarf Sun will extract angular momentum from the system,

causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate. [142]

65 billion

The Moon may collide with the Earth or be torn apart to form an orbital ring due to

the decay of its orbit, assuming the Earth and Moon have not already been

destroyed. [143]

100 billion – 10 12

(1 trillion)

All the ≈47 galaxies [144] of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy—

an expanded "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda"; the last galaxies of the Local Group

coalescing will mark the effective completion of its evolution. [9]

100–150 billion

The universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the former Local Group to

disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the observable

universe. [145][146]

150 billion

The universe will have expanded by a factor of 6,000, and the cosmic microwave

background will have cooled by the same factor to around 4.5 × 10 −4 K. The

temperature of the background will continue to cool in proportion to the expansion of

the universe. [146]

325 billion

The estimated time by which the expansion of the universe will have isolated all

gravitationally bound structures within their own cosmological horizon. At this point,

the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 100 million from today, and

even individual exiled stars will be isolated. [147]

800 billion

The expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda"

galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of

peak luminosity. [148]

10 12 (1 trillion)

A low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are

depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars. [9]

The Universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density,

multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by

1029 , exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its

evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be

possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study

of hypervelocity stars. [145]1.05×10 12

(1.05 trillion)

The estimated time by which the universe will have expanded by a factor of more

than 10 26 , reducing the average particle density to less than one particle per

cosmological horizon volume. Beyond this point, particles of unbound intergalactic

matter are effectively isolated, and collisions between them cease to affect the future

evolution of the universe. [147]

1.4×10 12

(1.4 trillion)

The estimated time by which the cosmic background radiation cools to a floor

temperature of 10 −30 K and does not decline further. This residual temperature

comes from horizon radiation, which does not decline over time. [146]

2×10 12 (2 trillion)

The estimated time by which all objects beyond our former Local Group are

redshifted by a factor of more than 10 53 . Even gamma rays that they emit are

stretched so that their wavelengths are greater than the physical diameter of the

horizon. The resolution time for such radiation will exceed the physical age of the

universe. [149]

4×10 12 (4 trillion)

The estimated time until the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the

Sun today, at a distance of 4.25 light-years, leaves the main sequence and becomes

a white dwarf. [150]

10 13 (10 trillion)

The estimated time of peak habitability in the universe, unless habitability around

low-mass stars is suppressed. [151]

1.2×10 13

(12 trillion)

The estimated time until the red dwarf star VB 10—as of 2016, the least-massive

main-sequence star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M☉—runs out of hydrogen in

its core and becomes a white dwarf. [152][153]

3×10 13 (30 trillion)

The estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with

another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants)

pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting

them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent

star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more

tightly bound to the star. [154]

10 14 (100 trillion)

A high estimate for the time by which normal star formation ends in galaxies. [9] This

marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with too little

free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and

die. [155] By this time, the universe will have expanded by a factor of approximately

10 2554 . [147]

1.1–1.2×10 14

(110–120 trillion)

The time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest�

lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years). [9]

After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white

dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes) and brown dwarfs.

Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a

marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will shine in what was

once "Milkomeda". Collisions between stellar remnants will create

occasional supernovae.[9]

10 15 (1

quadrillion)

The estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems

(including the Solar System) from their orbits. [9]

By this point, the black dwarf that was once the Sun will have cooled

to 5 K (−268.15 °C; −450.67 °F).[156]

10 19 to 10 20

(10–100

quintillion)

The estimated time until 90–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the

Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other,

they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy.

Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in

this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes"Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar

remnants. [9][157]

10 20 (100

quintillion)

The estimated time until the Earth collides with the black dwarf Sun due to the decay

of its orbit via emission of gravitational radiation, [158] if the Earth is not ejected from

its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase. [158]

10 23 (100

sextillion)

Around this timescale most stellar remnants and other objects are ejected from the

remains of their galactic cluster. [159]

10 30 (1 nonillion)

The estimated time until most or all of the remaining 1–10% of stellar remnants not

ejected from galaxies fall into their galaxies' central supermassive black holes. By

this point, with binary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars,

via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown

dwarfs, ejected planetary-mass objects, black holes) will remain in the universe. [9]

2×10 36 (2

undecillion)

The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the

hypothesized proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2 × 10 33

years). [160][note 4]

10 36–10 38 (1–100

undecillion)

The estimated time for all remaining planets and stellar-mass objects, including the

Sun, to disintegrate if proton decay can occur. [9]

3×10 43 (30

tredecillion)

The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the

hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value of 10 41 years, [9]

assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made

baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early universe makes protons decay.

By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the

only remaining celestial objects, begins. [9][155]

3.14×10 50 (314

quindecillion)

The estimated time until a micro black hole of one Earth mass today, will have

decayed into subatomic particles by the emission of Hawking radiation. [161]

10 65 (100

vigintillion)

Assuming that protons do not decay, the estimated time for rigid objects, from free�

floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange their atoms and molecules via

quantum tunnelling. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a

liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity. [158]

1.16×10 67 (11.6

unvigintillion)

The estimated time until a black hole of one solar mass today, will have decayed by

the emission of Hawking radiation. [161]

1.54×10 91–

1.41×10 92 (15.4–

141

novemvigintillion)

The estimated time until the resulting supermassive black hole of

"Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" from the merger of Sagittarius A* and the P2

concentration during the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies [162] will

have vanished by the emission of Hawking radiation, [161] assuming it does not

accrete any additional matter nor merge with other black holes—though it is most

likely that this supermassive black hole will nonetheless merge with other

supermassive black holes during the gravitational collapse towards

"Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" of other Local Group galaxies. [163] This supermassive

black hole might be the very last entity from the former Local Group to disappear—

and the last evidence of its existence.

10 106 – 2.1×10 109

The estimated time until ultramassive black holes of 10 14 (100 trillion) solar masses,

predicted to form during the gravitational collapse of galaxy superclusters, [164] decay

by Hawking radiation. [161] This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this

time, if protons do decay, the universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical

objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final

energy state in the heat death of the universe. [9][155]

10 161

A 2018 estimate of Standard Model lifetime before collapse of a false vacuum; 95%

confidence interval is 10 65 to 10 1383 years due in part to uncertainty about the top

quark's mass. [165][note 5]

10 200

The highest estimate for the time it would take for all nucleons in the observable

universe to decay, provided they do not decay via the above process but instead

through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics(higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons,

etc.) on time scales of 10 46 to 10 200 years. [155]

10 1100–32000

The estimated time for black dwarfs of 1.2 solar masses or more to undergo

supernovae as a result of slow silicon–nickel–iron fusion, as the declining electron

fraction lowers their Chandrasekhar limit, assuming protons do not decay. [166]

10 1500

Assuming that protons do not decay, the estimated time until all baryonic matter in

stellar remnants, planets and planetary-mass objects will have either fused together

via muon-catalyzed fusion to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element

into iron-56 to form iron stars. [158]

[note 6][note 7]

A low estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into

black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that Planck-scale

black holes can exist. [158]

On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars will have been

destroyed by quantum-tunnelling events. At this lower end of the

timescale, iron stars decay directly to black holes, as this decay mode

is much more favourable than decaying into a neutron star (which has

an expected timescale of

years)[158] and later decaying into a

black hole. On these timescales, the subsequent evaporation of each

resulting black hole into subatomic particles (a process lasting roughly

10100 years) and the subsequent shift to the Dark Era is

instantaneous.

[note 1][note 7]

[note 8]

The estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a

spontaneous entropy decrease. [11]

[note 7]

Highest estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into

neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and

that black holes below the Chandrasekhar mass cannot form directly. [158] On these

timescales, neutron stars above the Chandrasekhar mass rapidly collapse into black

holes, and black holes formed by these processes instantly evaporate into subatomic

particles.

This is also the highest estimated possible time for the Black Hole Era

(and subsequent Dark Era) to commence. Beyond this point, it is

almost certain that the universe will be an almost pure vacuum, with all

baryonic matter having decayed into subatomic particles, gradually

winding down their energy level until it reaches its final energy state,

assuming it does not happen before this time.

[note 7]

The highest estimate for the time it takes for the universe to reach its final energy

state. [11]

[note 1][note 7]

Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the universe

could generate new inflationary events, resulting in new Big Bangs giving birth to

new universes. [167]

(Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles

in the observable universe can be combined is

,

[168][169] a

number which, when multiplied by

, is approximately

,

this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and quantum

fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical toour own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the

same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics

within the landscape predicted by string theory.)[170][171]

Humanity and human constructs

Keys

Astronomy and astrophysics

Geology and planetary science

Biology

Particle physics

Mathematics

Technology and culture

To date, five spacecraft (Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and New Horizons) are on

trajectories that will take them out of the Solar System and into interstellar space. Barring an extremely

unlikely collision with some object, all five should persist indefinitely. [172]Date (CE) or

years from now

Event

1,000

The SNAP-10A nuclear satellite, launched in 1965 into an orbit 700 km (430 mi)

above Earth, will return to the surface. [173][174]

3183 CE

The Zeitpyramide (time pyramid), a public art work started in 1993 at Wemding,

Germany, is scheduled for completion. [175]

2,000

Maximum lifespan of the data films in Arctic World Archive, a repository that

contains code of open-source projects on GitHub along with other data of historical

interest (if stored in optimum conditions). [176]

10,000

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for nuclear weapons waste is planned to be

protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off

visitors through multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and

pictograms. [177] The Human Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical

basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics. [178]

10,000

Planned lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including

a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project and

the Long Bet Project. [179]

Estimated lifespan of the HD-Rosetta analog disc—an ion beam�

etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at

Los Alamos National Laboratory and later commercialized. (The

Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the Rosetta

Stone.)

10,000

Projected lifespan of Norway's Svalbard Global Seed Vault. [180]

10,000

Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank

Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation. [181]

10,000

If globalization trends lead to panmixia, human genetic variation will no longer be

regionalized, as the effective population size will equal the actual population

size. [182]

20,000

According to the glottochronology linguistic model of Morris Swadesh, future

languages should retain just one out of every 100 "core vocabulary" words on their

Swadesh list compared to that of their current progenitors. [183]

The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone is expected to become habitable

again.[184]

24,110

Half-life of plutonium-239. [185] At this point the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the

2,600-square-kilometre (1,000 sq mi) area of Ukraine and Belarus left deserted by

the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, will return to normal levels of radiation. [186]

25,000

The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974,

will reach the distance of its destination: the globular cluster Messier 13. [187] This is

the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy.

There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the

time taken for the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in

diameter, the message will still reach its destination. [188] Any reply will take at least

another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission.

14 September

30828 CE

Maximum system time for 64-bit NTFS-based Windows operating system. [189]

33,800

Pioneer 10 passes within 3.4 light-years of Ross 248. [190]

42,200

Voyager 2 passes within 1.7 light-years of Ross 248. [190]

44,100

Voyager 1 passes within 1.8 light-years of Gliese 445. [190]

46,600

Pioneer 11 passes within 1.9 light-years of Gliese 445. [190]

50,000

Estimated atmospheric lifetime of tetrafluoromethane, the most durable

greenhouse gas. [191]

90,300

Pioneer 10 passes within 0.76 light-years of HIP 117795. [190]

100,000+

Time required to terraform Mars with an oxygen-rich breathable atmosphere, using

only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on

Earth. [192]

100,000–1 million

Estimated time by which humanity could colonize the Milky Way galaxy and

become capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of

10% the speed of light. [193]

250,000

The estimated minimum time at which the spent plutonium stored at New Mexico's

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans. [194]

13 September

275760 CE

Maximum system time for the JavaScript programming language. [195]

492,300

Voyager 1 passes within 1.3 light-years of HD 28343. [190]

1 million

Estimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) self storage-style repository in

Hallstatt salt mine in Austria, which stores information on inscribed tablets of

stoneware. [196]

Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at

the University of Twente in the Netherlands.[197]

1 million

Current glass objects in the environment will be decomposed. [198]

Various public monuments composed of hard granite will have

eroded by one metre, in a moderate climate and assuming a rate of

1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years).[199]

Without maintenance, the Great Pyramid of Giza will have eroded to

the point where it is unrecognizable.[200]

On the Moon, Neil Armstrong's "one small step" footprint at

Tranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by all

twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of space

weathering. [115][201] (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are

not present on the Moon because of its almost complete lack of

atmosphere.)

1.2 million

Pioneer 11 comes within three light-years of Delta Scuti. [190]

2 million

Pioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran. [202]

2 million

Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo allopatric

speciation. [203] Evolutionary biologist James W. Valentine predicted that if humanity

has been dispersed among genetically isolated space colonies over this time, the

galaxy will host an evolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a

"diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us". [204] This would be anatural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate genetic

enhancement technologies.

4 million

Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila. [202]

5–10 million

Due to gradual degeneration, the Y chromosome will have disappeared. [205][206]

7.2 million

Without maintenance, Mount Rushmore will have eroded to the point where it is

unrecognizable. [207]

8 million

Humanity has a 95% probability of extinction by this date, according to J. Richard

Gott's formulation of the controversial Doomsday argument. [208]

8 million

Most probable lifespan of the Pioneer 10 plaques before the etching is destroyed

by poorly understood interstellar erosion processes. [209]

The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter

Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future

descendants of humanity and a map of the continents as they are

expected to appear then.[210]

100 million

Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's

original formulation of the Drake equation. [211]

100 million

Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban Stratum" of fossilized

great coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such

as building foundations and utility tunnels. [212]

1 billion

Estimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using an iron nanoparticle

moved as a molecular switch through a carbon nanotube, a technology developed

at the University of California at Berkeley. [213]

1 billion

Estimated lifespan of the two Voyager Golden Records before the information

stored on them is rendered unrecoverable. [214]

Estimated time for an astroengineering project to alter the Earth's

orbit, compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward

migration of the habitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroid

gravity assists. [215][216]

292277026596 CE

(292 billion)

Numeric overflow in system time for 64-bit Unix systems. [217]

10 20

(100 quintillion)

Estimated timescale for the Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft to collide with a star

(or stellar remnant). [190]

3 × 10 19 – 3 × 10 21

(30 quintillion to

3 sextillion)

Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage using femtosecond

laser-etched nanostructures in glass, a technology developed at the University of

Southampton, at an ambient temperature of 30 °C (86 °F; 303 K). [218][219]Timeline of the far future

Astronomy portal

Stars portal

Outer space portal

World portal

See also

Metre

Tonne

Kilometre

Mercury (planet)

Venus

Earth

Universe

Great Pyramid of Giza

Glacial lake

Lake Erie

References