Victory Plan for Ukraine

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Victory Plan
Ukrainian: «План перемоги» (Plan peremohy)
  Ukraine
  Russian Federation
  NATO member states as of 2025
  Territories controlled by Russia or pro-Russian separatists but claimed by Ukraine (Crimea, Donbas) with the support of the UNGA[a]
TypePeace enforcement
ContextRusso-Ukrainian war
DraftedOctober 16, 2024 (2024-10-16)
Condition
  • NATO membership invitation to Ukraine
  • Just end to the Russo-Ukrainian war (Point 1)
Amendment3 secret annexes (Points 2—4, partly)
ExpirationNot meant for signing[1]
Languages
  • Ukrainian
  • English
Five-point plan[2]
  • 1. Geopolitical
  • 2. Defense
  • 3. Deterrence
  • 4. Economical
  • 5. Postwar safety
Unveiled at the Verkhovna Rada by Volodymyr Zelensky on 16 October 2024[3]

In October 2024, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled the Victory plan for Ukraine,[4] which includes the solution to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and description of future national defense guarantees.[5] The official goal of the plan is "to change the circumstances in such a way that Russia will be forced to peace".[6]

Points

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The plan includes five points: one geopolitical, two military, one economical and one related to national defense and safety.[7] The second, third and fourth points of the plan have classified conditions included, that were introduced only to the political leaders of the US, Germany, France, United Kingdom and Italy.[8][9]

  1. Inclusion of Ukraine into NATO and the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war. This implies geopolitical determination in Europe. This will be "a testament to the determination of Ukrainian partners" (mainly key Euro-Atlantic countries) and "will show how the partners see Ukraine in the renewed continental security architecture in the future".[10][11][12]
  2. Strengthening of the national defense. Implies the strengthening of Ukrainian positions on the territory of Russia in order to avoid the creation of buffer zones on the Ukrainian territory, lifting restrictions on strikes inside the Russian territory, strengthening Ukraine's air defense to a sufficient level of protection and joint defense operations with neighboring states within the reach of their air shield; access to satellite intelligence data of Ukrainian partners in real time, irreversible strengthening of the positions of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine and the destruction of Russia's offensive potential on the occupied territory of Ukraine.[10][11][12]
  3. Deterrence. Implies the placement of a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic package of deterring Russia's armed aggression and its military capabilities inside the Ukrainian territory.[10][11][12]
  4. Strategic economic potential. Envisages the investment of international partners in the production of critically important natural resources, such as uranium, titanium, lithium and graphite.[13]
  5. National safety. This point is designed for the post-war period. Zelenskyy assumed that in case of an agreement, Ukrainian units will be able to replace separate US military contingents stationed in Europe.[14]

Reaction

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  •  France: French ministry of foreign affairs stated that it supports the plan.[15]
  •  Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has gone on record to say that Germany does not support the idea of inviting Ukraine to NATO during wartime.[16]

Comparative assessment

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In August 2025, Nik Hynek and Michal Šenk suggested the template for analysis of peace plans in interstate war with assessments of respective suggestions during ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

C[onc]urrent peace plans across ten comparative criteria[b]
Criterion Ukraine "Victory" Agenda Russia Maximalist Design US Mediated Partition[c] Europe–Ukraine Counter‑Initiative China–Brazil "Friends of Peace" Plan Istanbul Draft (2022 revival)
Enforcement mechanisms Strong emphasis on Western guarantees Minimal; relies on Russian dominance International monitors envisaged EU/NATO backing; sanctions leverage Vague; multipolar rhetoric Weak; limited monitoring
Recovery & reconstruction Western aid central Russia assumes control of occupied areas Partition with aid to both sides EU‑led recovery funds Development aid promised Limited; undefined
Societal alignment (public opinion) High domestic support for sovereignty Russian domestic narrative only Divisive; Ukrainians reject partition Strong Ukrainian civil society backing Low resonance in Ukraine Mixed; contested
Security guarantees NATO/EU integration Neutrality enforced by Russia U.S./UN guarantees proposed NATO umbrella Multipolar guarantees (China, Brazil) Neutrality clauses; weak guarantees
Territorial concessions Rejects concessions Demands recognition of annexations Partition envisaged Rejects concessions Freeze lines; ambiguous Crimea/Donbas unresolved
Accountability / justice War crimes prosecution central Russia absolved of war‑criminal responsibility Deferred accountability Strong emphasis on justice Downplayed Deferred
External mediation Western allies Russia only U.S. broker EU role China–Brazil mediation Turkey broker
Neutrality / alliances Rejects neutrality Demands neutrality Neutral buffer envisaged NATO integration Neutrality promoted Neutrality clause
Economic aid / incentives Western aid packages Russian subsidies Aid split between entities EU recovery funds Development aid promised Limited
Durability / long‑term stability High if backed by West Low; coercive Fragile; partition unstable Stronger with EU/NATO support Weak; lacks enforcement Fragile; draft abandoned
Source: Originally published by Peacebuilding in November 2025. ISSN: 2164-7259 (Print) 2164-7267 (Online) [17]: 11–12 

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ as of February 2022
  2. ^ Combining comparative-historical and conflict-resolution analyses, authors developed and conceptualized a ten-criterion template for appraising peace proposals in major interstate wars, exemplified by Russo-Ukrainian war. It featured eight instructive settlements – the Treaty of Portsmouth ending the Russo-Japanese War (1905), the Moscow Peace Treaty concluding the Winter War (1940), the Korean Armistice Agreement (1953), the Austrian State Treaty (1955), the Camp David Accords (1978), the Geneva Accords on Afghanistan (1988), the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995) and the Khasavyurt Accord on Chechnya (1996) – each relevant through either Russia/USSR participation or design choices illuminating Russo-Ukrainian dilemmas.
  3. ^ On November 19, 2025, draft 28-point US plan was revealed.

References

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  1. ^ Barker, Kim; Schmitt, Eric; Erlanged, Steven; Troianovski, Anton (29 October 2024). "With Limited Options, Zelensky Seeks a Path Forward for Ukraine". The New York Times. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  2. ^ Kullab, Samya; Cook, Lorne (25 September 2024). "Zelenskyy's victory plan sets Ukraine's terms in a desperate war against Russia". Associated Press news. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  3. ^ Arhirova, Hanna (17 October 2024). "A glance at Ukraine's plan aimed at nudging Russia into talks to end the war". Associated Press news. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  4. ^ "Zelensky presents 'victory plan' to Ukrainian parliament". www.bbc.com. Retrieved 2024-10-20.
  5. ^ "Зеленський представив План перемоги, який складається з пʼяти пунктів — Forbes.ua". forbes.ua (in Ukrainian). 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  6. ^ "Зеленський у Раді перерахував пункти плану перемоги України. Перший – запрошення до НАТО" (in Ukrainian). Радіо Свобода. 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  7. ^ "Here's what's in Zelenskyy's victory plan for beating Putin". POLITICO. 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-20.
  8. ^ "Зеленський у Раді представив деталі "плану перемоги"". Радіо Свобода (in Ukrainian). 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  9. ^ "План перемоги Зеленського: які у ньому пункти". BBC News Україна (in Ukrainian). 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  10. ^ a b c "Зеленський представив план перемоги в Європейській раді" (in Ukrainian). Суспільне | Новини. 2024-10-17. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  11. ^ a b c "Що передбачає "план перемоги"". Головне з виступу Зеленського у Раді" (in Ukrainian). Texty.org.ua. 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  12. ^ a b c "План перемоги і завершення війни. Що запропонував Зеленський, щоб досягти миру?" (in Ukrainian). Радіо Свобода. 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-19.
  13. ^ "Victory Plan Consists of Five Points and Three Secret Annexes". president.gov.ua. 16 October 2024.
  14. ^ "Zelenskyy outlines his 'victory plan' to Ukraine's lawmakers, including a call to join NATO". AP News. 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2024-10-20.
  15. ^ "МЗС: Франція підтримує план перемоги України". Радіо Свобода (in Ukrainian). 2024-10-19. Retrieved 2024-10-19.
  16. ^ "Ukraine cannot join NATO while at war, Scholz says". The Kyiv Independent. 2024-10-24. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
  17. ^ Hynek, N.; Šenk, M. (16 November 2025). "Ukraine–Russia peace plans: historical lessons, operationalising criteria, and comparative assessment". Peacebuilding. 2025: 1–22. doi:10.1080/21647259.2025.2585235. Retrieved 19 November 2025. Using our historically derived criteria, we analyse each plan with attention to future trajectories rather than day-to-day changes – though we do consider recent events, including the aftermath of the Trump–Putin meeting in Anchorage, Alaska in August 2025 – to ensure the paper's continued relevance as circumstances shift.