Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

2025

Date	Firm	Interview mode	Sample size	Primary vote							2PP vote[a]
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	UND	ALP	L/NP
7 – 26 Nov 2025	Redbridge[1]	Online	4,775	35%	26%	10%	18%	—	11%	—	54%	46%
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[2][3]	Online	1,020	36%	27%	11%	15%	—	7%[b]	6%	53.2%	46.8%
17 – 20 Nov 2025	Newspoll[4]	Online	1,245	36%	24%	13%	15%	—	12%	—	58%	42%
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5][6][c]	Online	3,530	34%	26%	12%	18%	5%	5%	—	54.8%	45.2%
4 – 17 Nov 2025	Spectre Strategy[7][8]	Online	1,007	33%	25%	12.5%	17.5%	—	12%	—	53%	47%
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	Online	5,248	33%	27%	12.5%	14%	—	13.5%	—	56.5%	43.5%
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10]	Online	1,011	38%	24%[d]	9%	18%	—	11%	—	56%	44%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	Online	6,928	33%	24%	13%	17%	—	13%	—	56%	44%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[12]	Telephone/Online	1,804	33%	29%	12%	12%	7%	6%	—	53%	47%
27 – 30 Oct 2025	Newspoll[13]	Online	1,265	36%	24%	11%	15%	—	14%	—	57%	43%
23 – 30 Oct 2025	YouGov[14][15]	Online	4,578	33%	27%	12%	13%	7%	8%	—	56%	44%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Essential[16][17]	Online	1,041	36%	26%	9%	15%	—	8%[b]	6%	53.2%	46.8%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	Online	1,530	33%	31%	14%	10%	—	11%	—	55%	45%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	Online	4,908	35%	27%	13%	12%	—	13%	—	57%	43%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	Telephone/Online	1,800	34%	28%	11%	12%	9%	7%	—	55%	45%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	Online	1,997	34%	29%	11%	14%	—	12%	—	54%	46%
29 Sep – 2 Oct 2025	Newspoll[26]	Online	1,264	37%	28%	12%	11%	—	12%	—	57%	43%
25 – 30 Sep 2025	YouGov[27]	Online	1,329	34%	27%	12%	12%	8%	7%	7%	56%	44%
24 – 29 Sep 2025	Essential[28]	Online	1,001	35%	27%	11%	13%	—	8%[e]	6%	53.5%	46.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[29]	Online	5,084	34%	30%	12%	9.5%	—	14.5%	—	55.5%	44.5%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	Telephone/Online	1,800	35%	27%	11%	12%	9%	6%	—	55%	45%
8 – 11 Sep 2025	Newspoll[31]	Online	1,283	36%	27%	13%	10%	—	14%	—	58%	42%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	Online	5,326	35%	30%	11%	11%	—	13%	—	53.5%	46.5%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	Online	5,001	34%	30%	12%	9%	—	15%	—	56.5%	43.5%
9 – 16 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	Telephone/Online	1,800	37%	29%	12%	9%	8%	6%	—	59%	41%
11 – 14 Aug 2025	Newspoll[36]	Online	1,283	36%	30%	12%	9%	—	13%	—	56%	44%
18 – 30 Jul 2025	Wolf & Smith[37][38]	Online	5,000	36%	30%	—	—	—	—	—	57%	43%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	Online	5,159	36.5%	31%	12%	7%	—	13.5%	—	57%	43%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40]	Telephone/Online	2,311	35%	29%	12%	8%	8%	8%	—	56%	44%
14 – 17 Jul 2025	Newspoll[41][42]	Online	1,264	36%	29%	12%	8%	—	15%	—	57%	43%
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[43]	Online	1,199	36%	26%	14%	9%	—	15%	—	59%	41%
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025	Spectre Strategy[44]	Online	1,001	35.9%	31%	12.8%	7.9%	—	12.3%	—	56.5%	43.5%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	Online	4,036	37%	31%	11%	9%	—	12%	—	55.5%	44.5%
23 – 29 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[46]	Online	1,522	36.5%	30.5%	12%	8.5%	—	12.5%	—	57.5%	42.5%
2 – 22 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[47]	Online	3,957	37.5%	31%	12%	6%	—	13.5%	—	58%	42%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	Online	5,128	37%	31%	11.5%	6%	—	14.5%	—	58.5%	41.5%
20 – 28 May 2025	The Liberal–National Coalition is temporarily dissolved
13 May 2025	Sussan Ley elected as Leader of the Liberal Party and the Opposition, replacing Peter Dutton
3 May 2025	Election[49]			34.6%	31.8%	12.2%	6.4%	7.4%	7.6%	—	55.2%	44.8%

Voting consideration

Some polling is conducted for voting consideration, with respondents able to select multiple options that they would consider voting for.

Date	Firm	Interview mode	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5]	Online	3,783	40%	30%	17%	21%	16%	—	—	—
10 – 29 Jul 2025	YouGov (MRP)[50][51]	Online	5,007	42%	33%	17%	12%	14%	4%	—	—

Leadership approval

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

2025

Date	Firm	Sample size	Preferred prime minister				Albanese				Ley
			Albanese	Ley	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[2]	1,020	—	—	—	—	47%	43%	10%	4%	31%	44%	25%	-19%
17 – 20 Nov 2025	Newpoll[4]	1,245	54%	27%	19%	27%	47%	47%	6%	0%	26%	55%	19%	-29%
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10]	1,011	40%	10%	13%[f]	30%	37%	39%	24%	-2%	13%	34%	53%	-21%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[12]	1,804	39%	25%	36%	14%	44%	44%	12%	0%	33%	41%	26%	-8%
27 – 30 Oct 2025	Newspoll[13]	1,265	54%	27%	19%	27%	46%	51%	3%	-5%	25%	58%	17%	-33%
23 – 30 Oct 2025	YouGov[15]	4,578	51%	26%	23%	25%	—	—	—	-3%	—	—	—	-22%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Essential[17]	1,041	—	—	—	—	45%	44%	11%	1%	32%	43%	24%	-9%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	1,530	48%	31%	22%	17%	—	—	—	-7%	—	—	—	-5%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	1,800	40%	23%	37%	17%	41%	47%	12%	-6%	33%	38%	28%	-5%
29 Sep – 2 Oct 2025	Newspoll[26]	1,264	52%	30%	18%	22%	47%	48%	5%	-1%	31%	52%	17%	-21%
25 – 30 Sep 2025	YouGov[27]	1,329	50%	28%	22%	22%	—	—	—	-4%	—	—	—	-19%
24 – 29 Sep 2025	Essential[52]	1,001	—	—	—	—	44%	46%	10%	-2%	32%	41%	26%	-9%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	1,800	38%	26%	36%	12%	44%	45%	11%	-1%	41%	32%	27%	+9%
8 – 11 Sep 2025	Newspoll[31]	1,283	51%	31%	18%	20%	45%	50%	5%	-5%	32%	49%	19%	-17%
20 – 26 Aug 2025	Essential[53]	1,034	—	—	—	—	49%	43%	9%	+6%	35%	37%	28%	-2%
9 – 16 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	1,800	41%	26%	33%	15%	43%	45%	12%	-2%	38%	29%	33%	+9%
11 – 14 Aug 2025	Newspoll[36]	1,264	51%	31%	18%	20%	49%	46%	5%	+3%	35%	44%	21%	-9%
18 – 30 Jul 2025	Wolf & Smith[37][38]	5,000	45%	35%	20%	10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24 – 29 July 2025	Essential[54]	1,012	—	—	—	—	50%	41%	9%	+9%	33%	35%	33%	-2%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40]	2,311	40%	25%	35%	15%	45%	42%	13%	+3%	38%	29%	33%	+9%
14 – 17 Jul 2025	Newspoll[41][42]	1,264	52%	32%	16%	20%	47%	47%	6%	0%	35%	42%	23%	-7%
4 – 10 Jul 2025	Morning Consult[55]	3,770	—	—	—	—	54%	35%	11%	+19%	—	—	—	—
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2025	Spectre Strategy[44]	1,001	46%	27%	27%	19%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3 – 9 Jun 2025	Morning Consult[55]	3,770	—	—	—	—	53%	36%	11%	+17%	—	—	—	—
7 – 11 May 2025	Essential[56][57]	1,137	—	—	—	—	50%	39%	11%	+11%	—	—	—	—
2 – 8 May 2025	Morning Consult[55]	3,770	—	—	—	—	57%	33%	9%	+24%	—	—	—	—

Party leadership

Liberal

Date	Firm	Sample size	Preferred Liberal leader
			Ley	Hastie	T. O'Brien	Price	Spender	Taylor	Tehan	Wilson	Other	Don't know
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[3]	1,020 (all)	14%	8%	—	11%	2%	5%	—	5%	10%	45%
		244 (L/NP)	21%	17%	—	12%	7%	9%	—	3%	5%	26%
17 – 20 Nov 2025	Newspoll[4]	1,245 (all)	21%	15%	3%	—	—	9%	—	6%	—	46%
		300 (L/NP)	28%	20%	2%	—	—	12%	—	7%	—	31%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Essential[17][58]	1,041 (all)	13%	10%	—	10%	4%	7%	—	3%	16%	42%
		236 (L/NP)	22%	20%	—	13%	4%	9%	—	4%	5%	24%
13 May 2025	Liberal caucus vote		53.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%	—	—	—	—
7 – 11 May 2025	Essential[57]	1,137 (all)	16%	—	—	—	—	12%	7%	—	20%	45%
		341 (L/NP)	20%	—	—	—	—	23%	6%	—	12%	39%

Individual politician favourability

Labor

Date	Firm	Sample size	Labor politician net favourability
			Bowen	Butler	Chalmers	King	Rowland	Wells	Wong
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	1,530	-7%	—	-2%	—	—	—	-4%
9 – 16 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	1,800	—	+4%	+1%	+4%	+4%	+4%	+5%

Coalition

Date	Firm	Sample size	Coalition politician net favourability
			Hastie	T. O'Brien	Price	Taylor	Littleproud	Joyce[g]
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[59]	1,011	+1%	—	—	-6%	—	-23%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[60]	1,804	+8%	—	—	—	—	-8%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	1,530	+7%	—	-3%	0%	-1%	-11%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[60]	1,800	+6%	—	—	—	—	—
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[60]	1,800	+4%	—	—	—	—	—
9 – 16 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	1,800	—	+6%	—	—	—	—

Crossbench

Date	Firm	Sample size	Crossbench politician net favourability
			Waters	Hanson
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10]	1,011	-7%	-12%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[60]	1,804	—	+8%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	1,530	—	—

National direction polling

Individual polls

Date	Firm	Right direction	Wrong direction	Can't say	Net
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[2]	35%	47%	18%	-12%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	35%	52%	13%	-17%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Essential[17]	35%	46%	19%	-11%
24 – 29 Sep 2025	Essential[52]	34%	50%	16%	-16%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[29]	32.5%	53%	14.5%	-20.5%
20 – 26 Aug 2025	Essential[53]	38%	47%	16%	-9%
24 – 29 July 2025	Essential[54]	38%	45%	17%	-7%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	37%	46.5%	16.5%	-9.5%
23 – 29 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[46]	38.5%	46%	15.5%	-7.5%
2 – 22 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[47]	43%	41.5%	15.5%	+1.5%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[61]	41%	44%	15%	-3%
7 – 11 May 2025	Essential[62]	37%	42%	21%	-5%

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	33.5%	28.5%	10.5%	14.5%	—	13%	55.5%	44.5%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	33%	24%	12%	17%	—	14%	55%	45%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[12]	—	34%	31%	11%	13%	5%	5%	53%	47%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	32%	37%	13%	10%	—	9%	52%	48%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	12%	—	—	57.5%	42.5%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	—	35%	29%	9%	14%	8%	5%	53.5%	46.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	11%	—	—	56.5%	43.5%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	—	34%	28%	9%	16%	9%	5%	53%	47%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	34%	29%	10%	12%	—	15%	54%	46%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	55%	45%
11 – 15 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	—	37%	29%	13%	12%	7%	3%	56.5%	43.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	56.5%	43.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40][h]	—	36%	31%	11%	8%	7%	6%	55%	44%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	38%	30%	9%	9%	—	15%	54%	46%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	59%	41%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		35.2%	31.5%	11.1%	6.0%	9.7%	6.5%	55.3%	44.7%

Victoria

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	33.5%	27.5%	16%	10.5%	—	12.5%	59.5%	40.5%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	33%	24%	14%	16%	—	13%	58%	42%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[12]	—	33%	29%	13%	12%	9%	5%	55.5%	45.5%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	32%	30%	13%	8%	—	18%	55%	45%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	9%	—	—	59.5%	40.5%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	—	33%	29%	12%	10%	9%	7%	56%	44%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	6%	—	—	56.5%	43.5%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	—	32%	30%	15%	9%	6%	9%	56.5%	43.5%
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU[63]	1,327	32%	29%	13%	12%	—	14%	55%	45%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	34%	32%	12%	9%	—	13%	54%	46%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	58%	42%
11 – 15 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	—	36%	30%	12%	6%	7%	8%	58%	42%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	57.5%	42.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40][i]	—	38%	28%	13%	8%	6%	8%	60%	41%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	36%	31%	12%	8%	—	13%	55%	45%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	59.5%	40.5%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		34.0%	32.2%	13.6%	5.8%	7.6%	6.8%	56.3%	43.7%

Queensland

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			LNP	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	LNP	ALP
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	27%	28%	12%	18%	—	15%	49%	51%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	25%	30%	12%	20%	—	13%	48%	52%
4 – 8 Nov 2025	Resolve[12]	—	26%	35%	14%	11%	8%	6%	44%	56%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	29%	30%	14%	18%	—	10%	47%	53%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	15%	—	—	49.5%	50.5%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	—	23%	35%	13%	13%	9%	8%	44%	56%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	11%	—	—	51.5%	48.5%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	—	27%	37%	10%	12%	10%	4%	45.5%	54.5%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	32%	31%	12%	16%	—	9%	51%	49%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	48%	52%
11 – 15 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	—	29%	39%	10%	9%	8%	5%	44.5%	55.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	46.5%	53.5%
13 – 18 July 2025	Resolve[40][h]	—	31%	31%	11%	10%	8%	8%	48%	51%
4 – 9 Jul 2025	DemosAU[64][65]	1,027	35%	31%	12%	13%	—	9%	47%	53%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	35%	32%	12%	12%	—	9%	51%	49%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	47.5%	52.5%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		34.9%	31.0%	11.8%	7.8%	3.8%	10.7%	50.6%	49.4%

Western Australia

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	32.5%	27.5%	11%	16.5%	—	12.5%	53%	47%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	34%	23%	12%	19%	—	12%	56%	44%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	45%	25%	18%	7%	—	5%	68%	32%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	11.5%	—	—	53.5%	46.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	8.5%	—	—	53%	47%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	44%	28%	7%	10%	—	11%	59%	41%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	56.5%	43.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	54.5%	45.5%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	41%	31%	11%	8%	—	9%	57%	43%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	58.5%	41.5%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		35.6%	31.5%	12.0%	7.6%	6.2%	7.1%	55.8%	44.2%

South Australia

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	37.5%	26%	15%	11.5%	—	10%	59.5%	40.5%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	36%	21%	16%	14%	—	13%	60%	40%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	35%	33%	18%	8%	—	6%	56%	44%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	15%	—	—	59.5%	40.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	13%	—	—	58.5%	41.5%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	59%	41%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	62%	38%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	58.5%	41.5%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		38.3%	28.0%	13.4%	6.2%	3.4%	10.7%	59.2%	40.8%

Tasmania

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	35.5%	26.5%	11%	9%	—	18%	65.5%	34.5%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	36%	18%	13%	17%	—	16%	64%	36%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	10%	—	—	68%	32%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	5.5%	—	—	68.5%	31.5%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	63.5%	36.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	61%	39%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	70.5%	29.5%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		36.6%	24.5%	11.1%	6.1%	18.1%	3.6%	63.3%	36.7%

ACT

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	46%	20%	16%	6%	—	12%	71%	29%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		47.5%	21.2%	15.1%	—	12.8%	3.4%	72.5%	27.5%

Northern Territory

Polling

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	CLP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	CLP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	34%	25%	12%	19%	—	10%	54%	46%
3 May 2025	Election[49]		37.9%	33.8%	10.2%	7.7%	7.7%	2.5%	54.3%	45.7%

Electorate projections

Date	Firm	Projection type	Sample size	Seat tally							Majority
				ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	CA	KAP	IND
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU[11]	MRP	6,928	98	29	0	12	1	1	9	ALP 23
3 May 2025	Election[49]			94	43	1	0	1	1	10	ALP 19

Individual seat polling

Main article: Electorate opinion polling and projections for the next Australian federal election

By electorate classification

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) classifies electorates as inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial and rural.^[66]

Inner metropolitan

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5]	—	40%	24%	17%	9%	7%	3%	—	—
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	38%	23%	17%	10%	—	12%	62%	38%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	39%	29%	13%	9%	—	10%	58%	42%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	42%	29%	11%	—	—	17%	60%	40%

Outer metropolitan

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5]	—	35%	24%	12%	21%	3%	5%	—	—
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	35%	23%	12%	17%	—	13%	57%	43%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	36%	27%	13%	13%	—	11%	56%	44%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	39%	30%	12%	—	—	19%	57%	43%

Provincial

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5]	—	33%	27%	10%	21%	5%	4%	—	—
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	33%	31%	10%	15%	—	11%	51%	49%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	34%	33%	11%	—	—	22%	52%	48%

Regional/rural

Some polls combine provincial and rural electorates as "regional/rural".

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5]	—	26%	30%	9%	23%	6%	6%	—	—
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	24%	26%	9%	24%	—	17%	47%	53%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	29%	30%	6%	20%	—	11%	48%	52%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	32%	32%	8%	—	—	28%	50%	50%

Subpopulation results

By gender

Women

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[2][3]	490	35%	23%	14%	14%	—	6%[b]	—	—
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5][c]	—	32%	25%	14%	18%	6%	5%	55.5%	44.5%
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	34%	26%	15%	11.5%	—	13.5%	60%	40%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	33%	22%	16%	16%	—	13%	58%	42%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Essential[16]	595	32%	26%	13%	14%	—	7%	52.5%	47.5%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	30%	30%	17%	11%	—	12%	55%	45%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	9%	—	—	60.5%	39.5%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	—	32%	26%	12%	14%	7%	8%	55%	45%
24 – 29 Sep 2025	Essential[28]	517	35%	24%	14%	14%	—	4%	55.5%	44.5%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	32%	30%	13%	13%	—	12%	53%	47%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	7%	—	—	59%	41%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	—	31%	27%	13%	13%	10%	6%	54.5%	45.5%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	RedBridge[32][33]	—	33%	29%	14%	11%	—	13%	55%	45%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	60.5%	39.5%
11 – 15 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	—	38%	25%	13%	9%	8%	6%	60%	40%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	59.5%	40.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40][i]	—	36%	27%	14%	7%	9%	8%	59.5%	41.5%
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[43]	—	36%	25%	15%	15%	—	10%	60%	40%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	36%	30%	13%	—	—	21%	56%	44%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	61%	39%
3 May 2025	Election[67]		36%	28%	18%	—	—	18%	—	—

Men

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[2][3]	530	37%	30%	7%	15%	—	8%[b]	—	—
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5][c]	—	37%	26%	10%	18%	5%	4%	55.5%	44.5%
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	31.5%	28.5%	10%	16.5%	—	13.5%	53%	47%
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025	DemosAU (MRP)[11]	—	33%	25%	10%	18%	—	14%	54%	46%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Esential[16]	446	39%	27%	6%	16%	—	8%	53%	47%
15 – 20 Oct 2025	Freshwater[18][19][20]	—	36%	32%	11%	10%	—	11%	56%	44%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	15%	—	—	53.5%	46.5%
7 – 12 Oct 2025	Resolve[22]	—	35%	30%	9%	10%	10%	5%	54.5%	45.5%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	37%	28%	8%	15%	—	12%	54%	46%
24 – 29 Sep 2025	Essential[28]	484	36%	30%	9%	11%	—	9%	52.5%	47.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	11.5%	—	—	51.5%	48.5%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	—	39%	27%	9%	12%	7%	6%	57%	43%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	RedBridge[32][33]	—	37%	32%	7%	12%	—	12%	52%	48%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	52%	48%
11 – 15 Aug 2025	Resolve[35]	—	36%	32%	10%	10%	7%	5%	54%	46%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	54.5%	45.5%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40][i]	—	34%	31%	11%	9%	8%	8%	55%	46%
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[43]	—	36%	28%	12%	9%	—	15%	57%	43%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	39%	32%	8%	—	—	21%	54%	46%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.5%	44.5%
3 May 2025	Election[67]		31%	37%	8%	—	—	25%	—	—

By age

18–34

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
19 – 24 Nov 2025	Essential[2][3]	316	36%	21%	21%	9%	—	5%[e]	—	—
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	31.5%	19.5%	25%	8%	—	16%	67%	33%
22 – 27 Oct 2025	Essential[16]	299	39%	21%	18%	7%	—	5%	60%	40%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	7%	—	—	69%	31%
24 – 29 Sep 2025	Essential[28]	305	36%	20%	25%	7%	—	5%	64.5%	35.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	8%	—	—	69%	31%
9 – 13 Sep 2025	Resolve[30]	—	40%	18%	22%	11%	6%	3%	67.5%	32.5%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	71%	29%
11 – 15 Aug 2025	Resolve[35][i]	—	39%	24%	22%	6%	8%	2%	66%	35%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	69%	31%
13 – 18 Jul 2025	Resolve[40]	—	37%	18%	28%	5%	6%	6%	69.5%	30.5%
5 – 6 Jul 2025	DemosAU[43]	—	39%	16%	31%	4%	—	10%	73%	27%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	40%	19%	24%	—	—	17%	68%	32%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	70%	30%

35–49

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5][c]	—	36%	24%	13%	16%	6%	5%	58%	42%
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	32%	24%	14.5%	14%	—	15.5%	60%	40%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	12.5%	—	—	60.5%	39.5%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	9%	—	—	59%	41%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	61%	39%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	58%	42%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	37%	25%	11%	—	—	27%	57%	43%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	62.5%	37.5%

50–64

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5][c]	—	32%	30%	7%	21%	7%	3%	49.5%	50.5%
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	33.5%	26%	7.5%	18.5%	—	14.5%	54%	46%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	16%	—	—	51%	49%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	10%	—	—	50.5%	49.5%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	49.5%	50.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	53%	47%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	37%	34%	5%	—	—	24%	50%	50%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	53%	47%

65+

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[a]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
12 – 17 Nov 2025	YouGov (MRP)[5][c]	—	31%	36%	3%	23%	5%	2%	44%	56%
20 Oct – 16 Nov 2025	Roy Morgan[9]	—	34%	39%	3.5%	15%	—	8.5%	46%	54%
22 Sep – 19 Oct 2025	Roy Morgan[21]	—	—	—	—	12%	—	—	48%	52%
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025	Roy Morgan[21][29]	—	—	—	—	8.5%	—	—	44%	56%
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025	Roy Morgan[34]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	43.5%	56.5%
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025	Roy Morgan[39]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	48%	52%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge[45]	—	36%	44%	2%	—	—	18%	45%	55%
5 May – 1 Jun 2025	Roy Morgan[48]	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	48.5%	51.5%

By generation

Generation Z

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[j]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10][k]	—	51%	10%	24%	5%	—	10%	79%	21%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	37%	16%	29%	6%	—	12%	69%	31%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	33.5%	17.5%	30.5%	5%	—	13.5%	68%	32%
3 May 2025	Election[67][68]		40.3%	27.2%	26.3%	—	—	6.1%	—	—

Millennials

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[j]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10][k]	—	34%	23%	11%	18%	—	14%	56%	44%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	37%	24%	13%	13%	—	13%	58%	42%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	38%	26.5%	13.5%	9%	—	13%	59%	41%
3 May 2025	Election[67][68]		37.4%	20.8%	19.2%	—	—	22.5%	—	—

Generation X

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[j]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10][k]	—	38%	26%[l]	6%	20%	—	10%	54%	46%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	36%	31%	7%	15%	—	11%	51%	49%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	34%	32%	6.5%	14.5%	—	13%	49.5%	50.5%
3 May 2025	Election[67][68]		33.7%	31.1%	6.4%	—	—	28.8%	—	—

Baby boomers

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote						2PP vote[j]
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
7 – 13 Nov 2025	Redbridge[10][k]	—	34%	30%	3%	24%	—	9%	47.5%	52.5%
25 Sep – 7 Oct 2025	Redbridge[23][24][25]	—	31%	37%	4%	17%	—	11%	45%	55%
19 Aug – 8 Sep 2025	Redbridge[32][33]	—	34%	38%	1.5%	14%	—	12.5%	45.5%	54.5%
3 May 2025	Election[67][68]		30.2%	44.5%	3.9%	—	—	21.3%	—	—

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election
• Post-election pendulum for the 2025 Australian federal election

Notes

1. Some Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election by The Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.
2. Including 1% for Trumpet of Patriots.
3. Two-party-preferred result estimated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election.
4. 20% for the Liberal Party and 4% for the National Party (with the Liberal National Party of Queensland vote distributed between both).^[10]
5. Including 2% for Trumpet of Patriots.
6. 28% responded "neither", 9% responded "about the same".
7. Joyce resigned from the National Party to sit as an independent on 27 November 2025.
8. Primary and 2PP vote sum is less than 100 due to rounding.
9. Primary and 2PP vote sum is greater than 100 due to rounding.
10. Some Redbridge 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election.
11. 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2025 Australian federal election.
12. 22% for the Liberal Party and 4% for the National Party (with the Liberal National Party of Queensland vote distributed between both).^[10][69]

References

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2. "Political Insights". The Essential Report. 26 November 2025. Archived from the original on 26 November 2025. Retrieved 26 November 2025.
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