Goliath's Curse

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Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse
AuthorLuke Kemp
LanguageEnglish
GenreHistory
Published31 July 2025 (Penguin Books Ltd, Viking)
Publication placeUnited Kingdom
Media typePrint (hard & paperback)
Pages592
ISBN9780241741238

Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse is a 2025 non-fiction book by Cambridge University scholar Luke Kemp.[1] A historical study of the collapse of human societies from the Bronze Age to the Modern era, the book draws upon 324 case studies of powerful regimes and empires that fell apart.[citation needed]

In his book, Kemp argues that these collapsed states were captured by corrupt elites, who used coercion and stealth to secure their dominance and seize control of community and private resources, leading to extreme social, political and economic inequality,[2] and that this oligarchy eventually led to collapse.[3] "Fiscal fragility, ecological overshoot, legitimacy crises, and polarization typically appear before failure—but are filtered through partisan incentives and short time horizons."[4] Kemp argues these regimes were fragile due to status-seeking elites, especially those with dark triad personality traits.[5]

Kemp argues that more democratic societies are more resilient and long-lasting.[6] He also finds that people were generally healthier before these large states appeared when they lived in more democratic hunter-gatherer societies.[5] Some recommendations for the future include running societies through citizens assemblies and taxing wealth.[5]

"Inequality... is the 'constant variable' or Achilles’ heel that sooner or later causes all Goliaths to buckle. If people stop believing they are 'all in it together', the upshot will be a game of thrones that nobody actually wins," summarized The Irish Times' Andrew Lynch. "Goliath’s Curse clearly belongs to the “great unifying theory” genre that has produced international best-sellers such as Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point and Yuval Noah Harari's Sapiens."[7]

Ed Simon, in a review for The New York Times, contrasted it with Jared Diamond’s 1997 bestseller Guns, Germs, and Steel, which focused on a handful of examples while Goliath’s Curse considers a massive data set and "provides a novel theory of civilizational development."[1]

Kirkus Reviews summed up the book as "An invigorating look at big-picture history across continents and millennia, and a survival manual to boot."[8] Publishers Weekly called the book "brilliant and unnerving".[3]

The book is based on research presented in the article "The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies" by Marten Scheffer, Egbert van Nes, Luke Kemp, Timothy Kohler, Timothy Lenton, and Chi Xu.[9][10][improper synthesis?]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Simon, Ed (October 2, 2025). "Are We Headed for Apocalypse? This Book Says It's a 1-in-3 Chance". New York Times.
  2. ^ Andrei, Mihai (August 5, 2025). "'Self-termination is most likely.' This expert believes our civilization is on a crash course led by narcissistic leaders". ZME Science.
  3. ^ a b "Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse by Luke Kemp". Publishers Weekly. July 8, 2025. Retrieved 2025-11-13.
  4. ^ "Review of Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse by Luke Kemp". New Space Economy. August 9, 2025.
  5. ^ a b c Carrington, Damian (August 2, 2025). "'Self-termination is most likely': the history and future of societal collapse". The Guardian.
  6. ^ Baker, Nick; Allely, Sarah (June 3, 2025). "Why do societies collapse and what does it mean for us?". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Democracy and inclusive institutions seem to be the big things that encourage states and societies to often last longer
  7. ^ Andrew Lynch (August 5, 2025). "Goliath's Curse: Powerful if uneven portrait of societal collapse sings the praises of Irish Citizens' Assembly". The Irish Times.
  8. ^ "GOLIATH'S CURSE". Kirkus. June 13, 2025.
  9. ^ Luke Kemp (April 24, 2024). "Why societies grow more fragile and vulnerable to collapse as time passes". BBC.
  10. ^ Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, Luke Kemp and Chi Xu (November 20, 2023). "The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 120 (48) e2218834120. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Bibcode:2023PNAS..12018834S. doi:10.1073/pnas.2218834120. PMC 10691336. PMID 37983501.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)