Draft:Natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean

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Natural Gas in the Eastern Mediterranean
Map of oil and gas basins in the Eastern Mediterranean
Region:Eastern Mediterranean
Countries:Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Greece, and the semi-autonomous territories of the Gaza Strip and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Since 2009, significant natural gas discoveries have been made in the Eastern Mediterranean[1]. These discoveries have influenced the region’s geopolitical landscape. Major offshore fields such as Leviathan (Israel), Zohr (Egypt) and Aphrodite (Cyprus) have positioned the region as a potential energy hub, sparking both cooperation and conflict among bordering states. The discoveries have intensified maritime boundary disputes and have prompted new maritime delimitations.

Natural gas reserves by country:

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  • Israel : The Leviathan field (17.7 trillion cubic feet, tcf), Tamar (10 tcf), Karish and Tanin (2.7 tcf)[2] and Katlan (1.1 tcf)[3].
  • Egypt : Home to the Zohr field (30 tcf) and Nour (undetermined capacity)[2].
  • Cyprus : Hosts the Aphrodite field (4.5 tcf), the Calypso field (estimated 6–8 tcf)[2] and Glaucus (5-8 tcf)[4][5]
  • Lebanon : Exploratory efforts have been stalled by political instability and unresolved maritime disputes with Israel[2][6].
  • Syria : Civil conflict has hindered any substantive exploration or development of offshore resources[4].
  • Turkey : Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) has conducted seismic surveys and drilling operations, including in contested areas around Cyprus[4].
  • Greece : Greece has refrained from offshore hydrocarbon activities in the Aegean due to its maritime dispute with Turkey, focusing instead on seismic surveys and licensing rounds in the Ionian Sea and south of Crete[4].
  • Libya : Potential reserves exist, but internal instability has limited offshore exploration[2][4].

Delimitations in the Eastern Mediterranean

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The discovery of natural gas has not only influenced the economic strategies of states, but also had an effect on the reshaping of the legal and geopolitical landscape of the region.

The Mediterranean Sea is characterized as a semi-enclosed sea under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and no point in the sea is more than 200 nautical miles from a coastline[7][8]. This creates overlapping maritime claims, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, where the presence of islands and complex coastlines further complicates maritime boundary delimitations[8].

Historically, states in the region have been reluctant to engage in maritime delimitation due to the risk of triggering or escalating disputes with neighbouring countries[9]. However, this has changed significantly since 2010, with a marked increase in maritime boundary agreements and unilateral delimitation declarations. Almost all coastal states in the Eastern Mediterranean have been involved in delimitation activities since 2010[9].

A driver behind this shift is the discovery of the substantial offshore natural gas reserves, which has created strong economic incentives to define Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and secure resource rights. For example, Israel's gas discoveries have had a profound impact on its economy, transforming it from an energy importer to an energy exporter[10].

Implications of natural gas discoveries

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The discovery of offshore natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean has had a significant effect on regional dynamics. While it has incentivized cooperation and economic development among several coastal states, it has also intensified existing maritime disputes and geopolitical instability.

Regional cooperation and energy projects

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Bilateral and trilateral cooperation

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Natural gas discoveries have encouraged closer cooperation between certain Eastern Mediterranean states, particularly Israel, Cyprus and Greece[11][2]. Following the discovery of the Leviathan and Aphrodite gas fields, Israel and Cyprus deepened their strategic partnership, aiming to transform the region into an energy hub[11].

This cooperation led to the delimitation of their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) – a move contested by Turkey, which is not a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and does not recognize the EEZ claims of Cyprus or Israel[2][11]. Despite this, the alliance between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece has strengthened through regular trilateral summits, joint military exercises and coordinated energy initiatives[11]. The alliance was reaffirmed by the three countries in March 2025[12].

EastMed Pipeline

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Main article: EastMed Pipeline

The EastMed Pipeline is a proposed undersea natural gas pipeline intended to transport gas from the offshore fields of Israel and Cyprus through Greece, with the aim of supplying European markets[13]. The project was initiated as a consequence of the substantial gas discoveries in the region and represents a significant effort by some Eastern Mediterranean states to jointly capitalize on offshore energy resources.

The pipeline project has received political support from the European Union, which views it as a strategic tool to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on Russian gas[14][10]. It was also initially supported by the United States, both diplomatically and financially, but U.S. support was withdrawn in 2022 – effectively stalling the project – citing concerns about the project's geopolitical implications as a major cause for tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean region[15][16].  Both Turkey and Egypt have found the EastMed pipeline highly problematic, and welcome the retreat of the project[16][2].

East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF)

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Main article: East Mediterranean Gas Forum

Founded in 2019, the EMGF is a regional organization established to facilitate cooperation on natural gas development and trade[17]. Member states include Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Jordan, Palestine, and France, with the European Union and the United States as observers[17]. The forum promotes technical collaboration, policy alignment, and infrastructure planning, reinforcing cooperative norms among its members, and represents the creation of a formal institution as a consequence of the gas discoveries in the region.

Disputes and tensions

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The discoveries of natural gas have further intensified the existing dispute between Greece and Cyprus on the one hand and Turkey on the other. All parties see the energy reserves as a strategic asset, which has increased competition in the region[2]. A key issue is the lack of agreement on maritime borders, with overlapping claims to gas-rich areas. Tensions peaked in 2020 when a Greek and a Turkish navy ship collided during exploration activities[18].

It is worth noting that Turkey is not part of any of the above cooperation initiatives, which further intensifies tension. Turkey has strongly opposed the EastMed Pipeline on claims that it infringes their maritime claims, and the rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus[2].

Another important dispute involves Israel and Lebanon. The two countries had overlapping claims in a potentially gas-rich maritime area, but in 2022 they reached a U.S.-brokered agreement to settle the boundary and allow for exploration to proceed.[19] However, as part of recent severe tensions in the region, the demarcation deal has been called "a mistake" by Israel’s Minister of Energy, Eli Cohen in September 2024 raising doubts about its viability[6].

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The gas discoveries have also contributed to a regional naval build-up. Greece, Turkey, Israel, and Egypt have all strengthened their naval forces in response to growing tensions[10]. This has created a so-called security dilemma, where even smaller states are considering expanding their maritime capabilities.

References

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  1. ^ Ratner, Michael. (2016). Natural Gas Discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/R44591.pdf.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Badarin, Emile & Tobias Schumacher. (2022). The Eastern Mediterranean Energy Bonanza: A Piece in the Regional and Global Geopolitical Puzzle, and the Role of the European Union. Comparative Southeast European studies (Print), 2022-09, Vol.70 (3), p.414-438.
  3. ^ Energean. (n.d.). Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://www.energean.com/operations/israel/katlan/
  4. ^ a b c d e Ioannides, N.A. (2020). Maritime Claims and Boundary Delimitation: Tensions and Trends in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429329630
  5. ^ Offshore Energy Today. (2019). "Exxon makes gas discovery at Glaucus-1 well, offshore Cyprus". Offshore Energy Today. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://www.offshore-energy.biz/exxon-makes-gas-discovery-at-glaucus-1-well-offshore-cyprus/?utm
  6. ^ a b Moran, Gabrielle. (2024). "Israel Pulls An Economic Lever on Lebanon". The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://www.jstribune.com/moran-israel-pulls-an-economic-lever-on-lebanon/
  7. ^ United Nations. (1982). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
  8. ^ a b Papanicolopulu, Irini. (2016). The Mediterranean Sea. In Donald Rothwell et al. The Oxford Handbook of the Law of the Sea. pp. 604-625. Oxford University Press.
  9. ^ a b Oanta, Gabriela A. (2021). Maritime Delimitations in the Mediterranean: Current Challenges. The Italian Yearbook of International Law Online, Volume 3, Issue 1, 5–28. https://doi-org.ep.fjernadgang.kb.dk/10.1163/22116133-03101002
  10. ^ a b c Rubin, A., & Eiran, E. (2019). Regional maritime security in the eastern Mediterranean: expectations and reality. Mediterranean Politics, 24(5), 988–1007.
  11. ^ a b c d Albrecht, T., Masala, C., & Tsetsos, K. (2016). Maritime security in the Mediterranean: Europe’s fragile underbelly. In J. Krause & S. Bruns (Eds.), Routledge handbook of naval strategy and security (pp. 142–156). Routledge.
  12. ^ Bimbishis, Andreas. (2025). "Cyprus, Israel and Greece reaffirm alliance, reject Turkey’s regional ambitions". In-Cyprus. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/local/israel-cyprus-greece-trilateral-meeting-regional-cooperation/
  13. ^ European Commission. (n.d.). Pipeline from the East Mediterranean gas reserves to Greece mainland via Cyprus and Crete [currently known as “EastMed Pipeline”], with metering and regulating station at Megalopoli. https://ec.europa.eu/assets/cinea/PCI/files/PCIFiche_15.2_1st_PCI_PMI_list.pdf
  14. ^ Parry, C. (2018). The Eastern Mediterranean – A Brief Geo-Political Overview. In: J. Stöhs and S. Bruns, eds. Maritime Security in the Eastern Mediterranean: Kiel International Seapower Symposium 2017. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, pp.19–28
  15. ^ Acer, Yucel. (2022). "With the US Withdrawing Its Support, Can the EastMed Project Now Turn Regional?". Politics Today. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://politicstoday.org/eastmed-project-eastern-mediterranean-united-states-turkey-greece/
  16. ^ a b Stamouli, Nektaria. (2022). "EastMed: A pipeline project that ran afoul of geopolitics and green policies". Politico. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://www.politico.eu/article/eastmed-a-pipeline-project-that-ran-afoul-of-geopolitics-and-green-policies/
  17. ^ a b EMGF. (n.d.). Home. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://emgf.org/pages/about/overview.aspx
  18. ^ BBC. (2020). "Turkey-Greece tensions escalate over Turkish Med drilling plans." BBC. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53497741
  19. ^ Gebeily, Maya & Maayan Lubell. (2022). "Israel, Lebanon finalise maritime demarcation deal without mutual recognition". Reuters. Retrieved 26-05-2025 on: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-israel-set-approve-maritime-border-deal-2022-10-27/