Climate change and crime

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Research shows several connections between climate change and crime. As global temperatures rise, some studies indicate an increase in crime rates, especially violent crimes.[1] Other studies show the evidence is mixed, finding only weak or inconsistent correlations. Factors like temperature volatility, seasonal variations, and geographical context are significant variables influencing crime rates.[1][2][3][4] More broadly, environmental crimes can fuel climate change, which accelerates the factors already influening crime patterns.[5]

Theories

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There are various theories to explain the relationship between rising temperatures and crime rates.

Temperature-aggression theory

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The temperature-aggression theory, also known as the biological theory, claims higher temperatures can lead to increased levels of stress in individuals, potentially resulting in aggressive behaviors.[6] As temperatures rise, people may become more prone to frustration and anger, which could contribute to an increase in violent crimes such as assaults and homicides.[5][6] Other studies have explored this concept, examining whether heat-induced aggression correlates with higher rates of violent crime.[3][5] Temperature aggression theory relies on examining historical data to identify correlations between abnormally high temperatures and increased rates of violent crimes over time.[3] Patterns in crime data across different seasons or during specific weather events can indicate whether violent crime rates increase during hotter periods.[3] Other variables - time of day, location, and demographics can also be influences.[3][7]

Routine activity theory

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A graphical model of the Routine activity theory (developed by Marcus Felson and Lawrence E. Cohen).

The routine activity theory states that crime is more likely to occur when three conditions are met: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and a lack of capable guardianship.[8][9] Warmer weather encourages outdoor activities and social interactions. This creates opportunities for motivated offenders to find suitable targets where people leave goods or property unattended.[1][2] The routine activity theory does not imply that higher temperatures directly cause crime, but rather it underscores that environmental factors, affect human behavior to create conditions conducive to criminal activity.[10]

Temperature changes

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Graph showing the relationship between temperature and murder and suicide rates from 1899.
Land-ocean temperature index from 1880 to present. The solid black line is the global annual mean temperature showing the overall increase and variability in temperature (created by NASA).

Studies have examined the relationship between temperature and crime, yielding varied results:

  • The "climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis" across fifteen U.S. cities over a fourteen year period found that most correlations between temperature and crime were insignificant, which the researchers said suggested that other social, economic, or environmental factors might be more influential.[1]
  • One study looked at the relationship between temperature and precipitation on crime in St. Louis, Missouri from 1990 to 2009.[7] The study concluded that increased temperature anomalies lead to an increase in monthly crime rates. It found a positive correlation between violent crimes, like aggravated assaults, higher temperatures, and a shorter rainy season.[7] They concluded this connection was mild, but they found a strong relationship between the temperature anomalies during El Nino/La Nina cycles and conflict.[7]
  • Another study examined annual temperatures and crime rates in the U.S., finding a correlation with specific crime types, such as assault and robbery. Others, like murder, showed no significant relationship.[11]
  • In 2021 Trujillo and Howley published a study that found in Barranquilla, Colombia higher temperatures increased interpersonal violence, while higher humidity and precipitation were linked to decreased violence.[12] The study supported the general aggression model and concluded that weather factors were important in urban areas.[12]

Resource scarcity

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Climate change is said to increase strain by exposing individuals to a range of stressors conducive to crime.[13] These stressors include extreme weather events, food and freshwater shortages, habitat changes, and forced migration.[13] Robert Agnew’s model suggests that climate change will likely become a significant driver of crime due to its layered effects on society like unpredictability, reduced social control, weakened social support, and increased opportunities for crime.[13]

One study investigated the effects of rainfall fluctuations on dowry-related deaths in India.[14] Studies concluded that a one standard deviation decrease in annual rainfall from the local mean is associated with a 7.8% increase in reported dowry deaths. Wet shocks, periods of excessive rainfall, reportedly have no significant impact on dowry deaths. The study also found a deficit in rainfall is associated with a 32% increase in domestic violence incidents. This may indicate a possible connection between economic stress due to poor agricultural yields during droughts and higher crime rates, particularly domestic abuse and dowry-related violence. Dry periods are correlate with increased domestic violence and kidnapping/abduction cases in the study, but they do not significantly affect burglary and robbery rates according to the study.[14]

Another perspective on resource scarcity and crime at a larger scale looks at the potential of climate change litigation to avoid conflicts and atrocity crimes.[15] A study conducted by Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria at The University of Queensland claims that successful litigation can address environmental and economic stresses.[15]

Environmental crimes

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Environmental crimes like illegal waste dumping, deforestation, and emissions of pollutants, accelerate climate change.[16] A study was published that points to rising temperatures and natural disasters being associated with a higher incidence of violent crimes.[5] This connection could be due to several factors: natural disasters can lead to increased social disruption, economic instability, and resource scarcity, all of which may contribute to heightened stress and conflict within communities, potentially leading to a rise in violent crime.[5] The resulting environmental degradation might push vulnerable communities toward poverty and instability, potentially contributing to conditions that foster violent crime.[5]

Policy measures

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Protestors at the Greenpeace Climate March from 2015 in Madrid.

One policy strategy is advocacy and education. Organizations like Greenpeace and events like Earth Day work to promote sustainability and educate people about climate change.[5] Beyond advocacy, a study by The University of Queensland concludes that legal actions can advance climate policy, reduce environmental degradation, and lower the risks associated with violent crimes.[15] Similarly employing sanctions for criminal activities contributing to climate change, increasing accountability for environmental wrongdoing are other suggested measures.[5]

Geography

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Geographic characteristics can influence crime patterns.[11][17] Factors like geographic climate, urbanization, infrastructure, and socioeconomic conditions can influence how weather-related changes affect crime rates.[17][18]

One study about North Bay, Ontario, a small urban area with a population around 50,000, researched how weather variables impact crime rates.[17] The study concluded that temperature influenced the distribution of thefts and assaults. Break and enters were influenced by calendar events.[17]

References

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  1. ^ a b c d Lynch, Michael J.; Stretesky, Paul B.; Long, Michael A.; Barrett, Kimberly L. (2020-11-05). "The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Hypothesis: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities, 2002 to 2015". International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 66 (4): 430–450. doi:10.1177/0306624x20969934. PMID 33153330.
  2. ^ a b Thomas, Christopher; Wolff, Kevin T. (July 2023). "Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime". Journal of Criminal Justice. 87 102090. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102090. Cite error: The named reference ":2" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  3. ^ a b c d e Cruz, Erik; D’Alessio, Stewart J.; Stolzenberg, Lisa (2020-06-01). "The Effect of Maximum Daily Temperature on Outdoor Violence". Crime & Delinquency. 69 (6–7): 1161–1182. doi:10.1177/0011128720926119.
  4. ^ Linning, Shannon J.; Andresen, Martin A.; Brantingham, Paul J. (2016-03-17). "Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates". International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 61 (16): 1866–1891. doi:10.1177/0306624x16632259. hdl:10072/409897. PMID 26987973.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Pellegrino, Nicolette (2018-12-11). "A Gap in Causation? Punishing Polluters for Contributing to Climate Change & Increasing Violent Crime". Pace Environmental Law Review. 35 (2): 375. doi:10.58948/0738-6206.1819.
  6. ^ a b Mahendran, Rahini; Xu, Rongbin; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming (September 2021). "Interpersonal violence associated with hot weather". The Lancet Planetary Health. 5 (9): e571 – e572. doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00210-2. PMID 34508676.
  7. ^ a b c d Mares, Dennis (2013-01-16). "Climate change and crime: monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies and crime rates in St. Louis, MO 1990–2009" (PDF). Crime, Law and Social Change. 59 (2): 185–208. doi:10.1007/s10611-013-9411-8.
  8. ^ Renzetti, Claire M. (2008). "Criminal Behavior, Theories of". Encyclopedia of Violence, Peace, & Conflict. pp. 488–498. doi:10.1016/B978-012373985-8.00042-8. ISBN 978-0-12-373985-8.
  9. ^ Lambert, Richard D. (2017). Clarke, Ronald V.; Felson, Marcus (eds.). Routine Activity and Rational Choice. doi:10.4324/9781315128788. ISBN 978-1-315-12878-8.
  10. ^ Thomas, C.; Jeong, J.; Woolf, K. (2024-12-01). "Testing Routine Activity Theory: Behavioural Pathways Linking Temperature to Crime" (PDF). British Journal of Criminology. 65 (4): 859–877. doi:10.1093/bjc/azae091.
  11. ^ a b Rotton, James; Cohn, Ellen G. (November 2003). "Global Warming and U.S. Crime Rates" (PDF). Environment and Behavior. 35 (6): 802–825. Bibcode:2003EnvBe..35..802R. doi:10.1177/0013916503255565.
  12. ^ a b Trujillo, Juan C.; Howley, Peter (2021). "The Effect of Weather on Crime in a Torrid Urban Zone" (PDF). Environment and Behavior. 53 (1): 69–90. Bibcode:2021EnvBe..53...69T. doi:10.1177/0013916519878213.
  13. ^ a b c Agnew, Robert (2012). "Dire forecast: A theoretical model of the impact of climate change on crime". Theoretical Criminology. 16 (1): 21–42. doi:10.1177/1362480611416843.
  14. ^ a b Sekhri, Sheetal; Storeygard, Adam (2014-11-01). "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India". Journal of Development Economics. Special Issue: Imbalances in Economic Development. 111: 212–223. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.09.001. PMC 4224306. PMID 25386044.
  15. ^ a b c Breitwieser-Faria, Yvonne (2023-11-06). "The Indirect Impacts of Climate Change Litigation: Its Potential to Prevent Conflict and Atrocity Crimes Elsewhere". The University of Queensland Law Journal. 42 (3). doi:10.38127/uqlj.v42i3.8437.
  16. ^ "Environmental Crime". Europol. Retrieved 2024-05-07.
  17. ^ a b c d Castle, Ysabel; Kovacs, John (2023-01-01). "Sizing up Crime and Weather Relationships in a Small Northern City". Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice. 65 (1): 60–79. doi:10.3138/cjccj.2022-0037.
  18. ^ Teron, Lemir (October 2023). "Inequality, Urban Heat Islands, and Crime" (PDF). Rockefeller Institute of Government. Retrieved 2025-07-30.