44th Manitoba general election

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44th Manitoba general election
← 2023 On or before October 5, 2027
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
 
LIB
Leader Wab Kinew Obby Khan Willard Reaves
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 April 26, 2025 September 29, 2025
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Fort Whyte None[a]
Last election 34 seats, 45.63% 22 seats, 41.86% 1 seat, 10.63%
Current seats 34 21 1
Seats needed Steady Increase 8 Increase 28
Incumbent Premier

Wab Kinew
New Democratic



The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Background

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Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

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43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present)
Party 2023 Gain/(loss) due to Current
Resignation
or death
of MLA 		Removed
from caucus 		By-election
New Democratic 34 (1) (1) 2 34
Progressive Conservative 22 (2) 1 21
Liberal 1 1
Independent – 1 1
Total 57 (3) – 3 57

Incumbents not running for re-election

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Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee New MLA
Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk[3]

Timeline

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Changes in seats held (2023–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Tuxedo May 6, 2024 Heather Stefanson █ PC Resignation[4] July 8, 2024[5] Carla Compton █ New Democratic
Fort Garry September 16, 2024 Mark Wasyliw █ New Democratic Removed from caucus[6] █ Independent
Transcona January 14, 2025 Nello Altomare █ New Democratic Died in office March 18, 2025 Shannon Corbett █ New Democratic
Spruce Woods March 24, 2025 Grant Jackson █ PC Resigned to run federally August 26, 2025 Colleen Robbins █ PC

2023

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2024

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  • January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
  • April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
  • June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
  • September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.

2025

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Opinion polling

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Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
September 29, 2025 Willard Reaves is acclaimed as leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party
Probe Research Sep 4–14, 2025 [p 1] 53% 34% 8% 1% 4% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 19%
Angus Reid Aug 28 – Sep 5, 2025 [p 2][p 3] 48% 41% 10% – 0% 2% 5% 334 online 7%
Probe Research May 28 – Jun 10, 2025 [p 4] 57% 32% 8% 2% 1% 0% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 25%
April 26, 2025 Obby Khan is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Probe Research Mar 4–16, 2025 [p 5] 57% 33% 8% 1% 1% 0% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 24%
Probe Research Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024 [p 6] 53% 34% 6% 2% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 19%
Probe Research Sep 5–15, 2024 [p 7] 56% 34% 4% 3% 1% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 22%
Probe Research May 28 – Jun 9, 2024 [p 8][p 9] 51% 38% 6% 1% 1% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 13%
Probe Research Mar 5–18, 2024 [p 10][p 11] 49% 37% 8% 1% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 12%
Probe Research Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023 [p 12][p 13] 51% 38% 7% 1% 2% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 13%
2023 general election October 3, 2023 [p 14] 45.63% 41.86% 10.63% 0.77% 0.74% 0.37% — — — 3.77%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green

References

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  1. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  2. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. ^ "Turtle Mountain MLA Doyle Piwniuk won't seek re-election". CBC News. November 12, 2025. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
  4. ^ "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News. April 25, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 Tuxedo By-election". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  6. ^ "MLA Mark Wasyliw removed immediately from NDP caucus, claims Premier Kinew is a 'bully'". CBC News. September 16, 2024.
  7. ^ Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  8. ^ The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  9. ^ Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  10. ^ "Former Blue Bomber Willard Reaves named new leader of Manitoba Liberal Party". CBC News. September 29, 2025. Retrieved September 30, 2025.
  1. ^ Reaves ran in Fort Whyte in 2022 and 2023.

Opinion poll sources

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  1. ^ "NDP Support Remains High, But Ebbs Slightly As PCs Recover (Sept. 2025 Manitoba Politics)". Probe Research. September 22, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  2. ^ "Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Performance: Manitoba". Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. Retrieved September 12, 2025.
  3. ^ "2025.09.11_Cross_canada_Press_release_tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. Retrieved September 12, 2025.
  4. ^ "New PC Leader, Same Result - So Far (June 2025 Manitoba Politics)". Probe Research. June 16, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  5. ^ "Provincial NDP Support Continues to Rise in Winnipeg (March 2025 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. March 25, 2025. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  6. ^ "Kinew Government Ends 2024 On A High Note (Dec. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  7. ^ "Honeymoon Continues for Manitoba's NDP (Sept. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  8. ^ "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)". Probe Research. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  9. ^ "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  11. ^ "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  12. ^ "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  13. ^ "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  14. ^ Official Results