2019 Canadian federal election in Quebec

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2019 Canadian federal election in Quebec
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All 78 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada
Opinion polls
Turnout4,230,638 (65.5%) [1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Justin Trudeau in 2019 at the G7 (Biarritz) (48622478973) (cropped) (cropped) (cropped).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Andrew Scheer 2019 (3x4 cropped).jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Yves-François Blanchet Andrew Scheer
Party Liberal Bloc Québécois Conservative
Leader since April 14, 2013 January 17, 2019 May 27, 2017
Last election 40 seats, 35.7% 10 seats, 19.3% 12 seats, 16.7%
Seats before 40 10 11
Seats won 35 32 10
Seat change Decrease 5 Increase 22 Decrease 1
Popular vote 1,468,603 1,387,030 684,661
Percentage 34.3% 32.4% 16.0%
Swing Decrease 1.4 pp Increase 13.1 pp Decrease 0.7 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May 2017 (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 August 27, 2006 September 14, 2018
Last election 16 seats, 25.4% 0 seat, 2.3% New party
Seats before 14 0[a] 1
Seats won 1 0 0
Seat change Decrease 13 Steady 0 Decrease 1
Popular vote 464,414 193,420 62,951
Percentage 10.8% 4.5% 1.5%
Swing Decrease 14.6 pp Increase 2.2 pp New party
Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

In the 2019 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 23.1% of all members of the House.

Background

[edit]

Timeline

[edit]
See also: By-elections to the 42nd Canadian Parliament
Changes in Quebec seats held (2015–2019)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Saint-Laurent January 31, 2017 Stéphane Dion █ Liberal Resigned to enter diplomatic post April 3, 2017 Emmanuella Lambropoulos █ Liberal
Lac-Saint-Jean August 9, 2017 Denis Lebel █ Conservative Resigned to accept a position in the private sector October 23, 2017 Richard Hébert █ Liberal
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord December 1, 2017 Denis Lemieux █ Liberal Resigned June 18, 2018 Richard Martel █ Conservative
Terrebonne February 28, 2018 Michel Boudrias █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Rivière-du-Nord February 28, 2018 Rhéal Fortin █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Mirabel February 28, 2018 Simon Marcil █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Repentigny February 28, 2018 Monique Pauzé █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel February 28, 2018 Louis Plamondon █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Joliette February 28, 2018 Gabriel Ste-Marie █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Montcalm February 28, 2018 Luc Thériault █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet █ Groupe parl qué
Terrebonne June 6, 2018 Michel Boudrias █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus following the resignation of party leader Martine Ouellet █ Bloc Québécois
Mirabel June 6, 2018 Simon Marcil █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus following the resignation of party leader Martine Ouellet █ Bloc Québécois
Outremont August 3, 2018 Thomas Mulcair █ New Democratic Resigned February 25, 2019 Rachel Bendayan █ Liberal
Beauce August 23, 2018 Maxime Bernier █ Conservative Resigned from the Conservative caucus, and changed affiliation to newly created People's Party September 14, 2018 █ People's
Rivière-du-Nord September 17, 2018 Rhéal Fortin █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus █ Bloc Québécois
Repentigny September 17, 2018 Monique Pauzé █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus █ Bloc Québécois
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel September 17, 2018 Louis Plamondon █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus █ Bloc Québécois
Joliette September 17, 2018 Gabriel Ste-Marie █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus █ Bloc Québécois
Montcalm September 17, 2018 Luc Thériault █ Groupe parl qué Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus █ Bloc Québécois
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel January 29, 2019 Nicola Di Iorio █ Liberal Resigned █ Vacant
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert August 16, 2019 Pierre Nantel █ New Democratic Expelled from NDP caucus following revelations that he had been in private talks to run for another political party in the next general election █ Independent[b]

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also: Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election
Opinion polling the election campaign
Opinion polling from 2015 to 2019
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC[1] Other Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
2019 election October 21, 2019 [2] 34.2 16.0 10.7 32.5 4.4 1.5 0.5 — 4,284,338 — 1.7
Leger October 15, 2019 [3] 31 16 14 31 6 2 - ±1.79 3000 Online 0
Forum Research October 12, 2019 [4] 33 15 10 31 7 2 2 ±3 pp 1001 IVR 2
Leger October 10, 2019 [5] 31 16 13 29 7 3 1 - 1014 Online 2
Mainstreet Research October 6, 2019 [6] 35 17 11 27 7 3 - ±3.75 pp 685 IVR 8
Mainstreet Research September 30, 2019 [7] 37 18 10 22 9 3 - ±3.7 pp 694 IVR 15
Nanos Research September 30, 2019 [8] 35.3 17.0 13.3 22.0 10.1 1.8 0.6 ±3.6 pp 828 telephone 13.3
Leger September 17, 2019 [9] 36 21 7 22 10 3 1 ±3.9 pp 837 Online 14
Mainstreet Research September 13, 2019 [10] 33.0 24.8 7.9 18.6 9.5 - - unknown unknown IVR 8.2
Leger August 29, 2019 [11] 34 23 7 20 11 4 1 ±3.39 pp 837 Online 11
Forum Research August 28, 2019 [12] 37 21 8 18 9 4 ±3 pp 1219 IVR 16
Forum Research July 24, 2019 [13] 30 28 9 15 10 4 3 ±3 pp 977 IVR 2
Forum Research June 12, 2019 [14] 32 25 9 18 10 4 2 ±3 pp 1,471 IVR 7
Leger March 11, 2019 [15] 35 26 7 17 9 4 ±3.08 pp 1,014 Online 9
Leger January 28, 2019 [16] 39 21 8 21 5 6 ±3.09 pp 1,007 Online 18
CROP June 19, 2018 [17] 42 27 10 12 8 0 — 1,000 Online 15
Leger August 24, 2017 [18] 43 16 19 16 6 2 ±3 pp 1,002 Online 27
2015 election October 19, 2015 [19] 35.7 16.7 25.4 19.4 2.2 — 0.7 — 4,241,487 — 19

Predictions

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

On August 9, André Parizeau, Bloc candidate for Ahuntsic-Cartierville, created attention over his past communist affiliations as Leader of the Parti communiste du Québec (PCQ).[20] Parizeau disavowed the PCQ in order to be accepted as candidate.[21]

On October 2, a man in Montreal, Quebec, told Jagmeet Singh NDP leader to cut off his turban to look more Canadian during a campaign stop. Singh replied that Canadians "look like all sorts of people" before walking off.[22][23]

In October, the Bloc Québécois called on Quebeckers to vote for candidates "who resemble you" (" des gens qui nous ressemblent ") in the election, prompting NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to denounce the message as unacceptable and divisive. In his closing statement during Wednesday's French-language debate, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet called on voters to "opt for men and women who resemble you, who share your values, who share your concerns and who work for your interests, and only for the interests of Quebeckers." The Bloc has said the comment has nothing to do with someone's background or religion but with Québécois values.[24][25][26][27] During the English debate, Blanchet called the translation of his words dishonest and mentioned that the same words were used by Igniatieff in 2011 and Mulcair in 2015.[28]

On October 10, Le Journal de Montréal discovered that four BQ candidates had made anti-Islam and racist social media posts.[29][30] A Bloc spokeswoman said it was up to Quebeckers to judge its candidates' social-media posts.[30] The comments were condemned by Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh, Mélanie Joly and Françoise David.[31] Later, the candidates all posted the same apology on their respective social media accounts and Yves-François Blanchet apologized for his candidates' Islamophobic and racist social media posts.[32][33]

On October 13, Blanchet announced that they will not support a coalition or a party in a minority scenario. The Bloc will go issue by issue and support what is best for Quebec.[34][35]

Law 21 was debated in the 2019 federal election. Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet stated this was a provincial matter and not relevant to the federal government's jurisdiction but did campaign in favour of Law 21.[36] Although Trudeau initially spoke out against the idea of the bill in 2017, he did not take any actual action to prevent the bill from passing. During his election campaign in 2019, he avoided the topic as much as possible in order to maintain popularity in the polls within Quebec.[37] The consensus among the 2019 candidates was that the bill was a provincial issue and they would not pursue action at a federal level if elected. Including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh who would personally be affected by the bill while in Quebec.[38]

Premier of Quebec François Legault said Coalition Avenir Québec MNAs were not allowed to give out endorsements.[39]

Le Devoir done a Joint Liberal/BQ endorsement.[40]

Results

[edit]

The NDP lost all but one of its seats in Quebec, it was suggested that Jagmeet Singh's Sikhism may have been negatively received by voters in the context of the Quebec ban on religious symbols.[41]

Summary

[edit]
Quebec summary seat results in the 2019 Canadian federal election[42][43]
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Liberal 1,468,603
34.3%
 Decrease 1.4pp
35 / 78 (45%)
 Decrease 5
Bloc Québécois 1,387,030
32.4%
 Increase 13.1pp
32 / 78 (41%)
 Increase 22
Conservative 684,661
16.0%
 Decrease 0.7pp
10 / 78 (13%)
 Decrease 1
New Democratic 464,414
10.8%
 Decrease 14.6pp
1 / 78 (1%)
 Decrease 13
Green 193,420
4.5%
 Increase 2.2pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0[f]
People's 62,951
1.5%
 Increase 1.5pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Decrease 1
Independent 8,458
0.2%
 pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Decrease 1[g]
Other 14,801
0.3%
 pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0
Total 4,284,338
100%
 –
78 / 78 (100%)
 Increase 1[h]

Comparison with national results

[edit]
Results by party
Party Popular vote % Seats in caucus
QC Natl. avg. diff.
Liberal 34.3 33.1 +1.2
35 / 157 (22%)
Bloc Québécois 32.4 7.6 +24.8
32 / 32 (100%)
Conservative 16.0 34.3 -18.3
10 / 121 (8%)
New Democratic 10.8 16.0 -5.2
1 / 24 (4%)
Green 4.5 6.5 -2.0
0 / 3 (0%)
People's 1.5 1.6 -0.1 no caucus
  Total – – –
78 / 338 (23%)

Student vote results

[edit]

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[44]

Summary of the 2019 Canadian Student Vote in Quebec
Party Leader Seats Popular vote
Elected % Δ Votes % Δ (pp)
Liberal Justin Trudeau 34 43.03 Decrease 17 30,170 27.65 Decrease 9.61
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 22 27.85 Increase 3 26,440 24.23 Increase 0.44
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 12 15.19 Increase 12 16,181 14.83 Increase 3.34
Conservative Andrew Scheer 8 10.13 Steady 0 11,110 10.18 Decrease 3.90
Green Elizabeth May 3 3.80 Increase 2 18,062 16.55 Increase 6.59
Other 0 0 Steady 0  4,051 3.71 Increase 0.28
People's Maxime Bernier 0 0 Steady 0 3,098 2.84 Increase 2.84
Total 78 100.00 Steady 0 109,112 100.00 –
Source: Student Vote Canada[45]

Notes

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  1. ^ Does not include Pierre Nantel, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
  2. ^ Sat as an independent for the remainder of his term, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
  3. ^ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ^ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. ^ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  6. ^ Does not include Pierre Nantel, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
  7. ^ Includes Pierre Nantel, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
  8. ^ 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament

References

[edit]
  1. ^ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268003/federal-election-results-canada-quebec/
  2. ^ "poll".
  3. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. October 15, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 11, 2020. Retrieved October 18, 2019.
  4. ^ "poll" (PDF). Forum Research. October 12, 2019.
  5. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. October 10, 2019.
  6. ^ "poll". Mainstreet Research. October 6, 2019.
  7. ^ "poll". Mainstreet Research. September 30, 2019.
  8. ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. September 30, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
  9. ^ "poll". Leger. September 17, 2019.
  10. ^ "poll". Mainstreet Research. September 13, 2019.
  11. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. August 29, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2019. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
  12. ^ "poll". Forum Research. August 28, 2019.
  13. ^ "poll" (PDF). Forum Research. July 24, 2019.
  14. ^ "poll" (PDF). Forum Research. June 12, 2019.
  15. ^ "poll". Leger. March 11, 2019.
  16. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. January 28, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 7, 2020. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  17. ^ "poll" (PDF). CROP. June 19, 2018.
  18. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. August 24, 2017.
  19. ^ "poll".
  20. ^ Lévesque, Catherine (August 9, 2019). "André Parizeau will be Bloc candidate in Ahuntsic-Cartierville". The Gazette. Montreal. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
  21. ^ Paré, Étienne (August 16, 2019), L'ancien chef du Parti communiste sera finalement candidat pour le Bloc (in French), Montreal, archived from the original on July 6, 2021, retrieved September 12, 2019{{citation}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
  22. ^ "Jagmeet Singh: 'Cut your turban off,' voter tells NDP leader". BBC. The Canadian Press. October 2, 2019. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  23. ^ "Jagmeet Singh challenges man who urged him to 'cut off' his turban". CBC News. October 2, 2019. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
  24. ^ Ballingall, Alex (October 3, 2019). "Bloc Québécois blasted for urging voters to support candidates 'qui vous ressemblent'". The Star. Ottawa. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
  25. ^ Lum, Zi-Ann (October 3, 2019). "Bloc Quebecois Defends Asking Voters To Pick Politicians That 'Resemble You'". HuffPost. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
  26. ^ Leblanc, Daniel (October 3, 2019). "Bloc Québécois urges Quebeckers to elect MPs 'who resemble you'". The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
  27. ^ Carbasse, Mathieu (October 3, 2019). "Jour 23 : Trudeau et Scheer prolongent le débat". L’actualité (in Canadian French). Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 5, 2019.
  28. ^ Federal Leaders' Debate 2019, CBC News, October 7, 2019, event occurs at 40:48, archived from the original on July 6, 2021, retrieved October 10, 2019
  29. ^ Nardi, Christopher (October 10, 2019). "Propos anti-islam: des candidats du Bloc embarrassants". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
  30. ^ a b Leblanc, Daniel (October 9, 2019). "Bloc says up to Quebeckers to judge its candidates' social-media posts". The Globe and Mail. Ottawa. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
  31. ^ Laframboise, Kalina (October 10, 2019). "Bloc Québécois leader issues apology over candidates' social media posts". Global News. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
  32. ^ Boshra, Basem (October 10, 2019). "Bloc leader apologizes for 'inappropriate' social media posts by party candidates". CTV News. Montreal. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
  33. ^ MacFarlane, John (October 10, 2019). "Bloc leader apologizes for candidates' Islamophobic and racist social media posts". CBC News. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
  34. ^ Ménard, Marc-Antoine (October 13, 2019). "Le Bloc québécois ne participera à aucune coalition | Élections Canada 2019" (in Canadian French). CBC/Radio-Canada. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  35. ^ "Bloc: Blanchet exclut à nouveau toute alliance". La Presse (in French). October 13, 2019. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  36. ^ "Bloc Quebecois leader Blanchet says secularism, Bill 21 shouldn't be campaign issue". Global News. October 8, 2019. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  37. ^ Zimonjic, Peter (December 13, 2021). "Trudeau says he won't step into Bill 21 debate to avoid triggering jurisdictional spat with Quebec". CBC News.
  38. ^ Rabson, Mia (October 8, 2019). "Singh's stance on Bill 21 called out by anti-hate group". Federal Election 2019. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  39. ^ Authier, Philip (September 4, 2019). "CAQ MNAs not allowed to take sides in federal election: Quebec premier". The Gazette. Montreal. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2019.
  40. ^ Myles, Brian (October 19, 2019). "Un Bloc fort dans un Canada libéral" [[We support] A strong Bloc [= Bloc Québécois] in a liberal Canada]. Le Devoir (in French). Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2019.
  41. ^ "Was Jagmeet Singh's race a factor in NDP loss in Quebec? Tough to tell, say Vancouver observers". The Georgia Straight. October 24, 2019. Archived from the original on December 17, 2019. Retrieved January 2, 2020.
  42. ^ "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on April 28, 2025. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  43. ^ "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on April 28, 2025. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  44. ^ https://studentvote.ca/canada/
  45. ^ https://studentvote.ca/results/provincial_results/33/2