2019 Canadian federal election in Quebec
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All 78 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 4,230,638 (65.5%) [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In the 2019 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 23.1% of all members of the House.
Background
[edit]Timeline
[edit]Seat | Before | Change | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
Saint-Laurent | January 31, 2017 | Stéphane Dion | █ Liberal | Resigned to enter diplomatic post | April 3, 2017 | Emmanuella Lambropoulos | █ Liberal |
Lac-Saint-Jean | August 9, 2017 | Denis Lebel | █ Conservative | Resigned to accept a position in the private sector | October 23, 2017 | Richard Hébert | █ Liberal |
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | December 1, 2017 | Denis Lemieux | █ Liberal | Resigned | June 18, 2018 | Richard Martel | █ Conservative |
Terrebonne | February 28, 2018 | Michel Boudrias | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Rivière-du-Nord | February 28, 2018 | Rhéal Fortin | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Mirabel | February 28, 2018 | Simon Marcil | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Repentigny | February 28, 2018 | Monique Pauzé | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel | February 28, 2018 | Louis Plamondon | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Joliette | February 28, 2018 | Gabriel Ste-Marie | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Montcalm | February 28, 2018 | Luc Thériault | █ Bloc Québécois | Resigned from the Bloc Québécois caucus citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Groupe parl qué | ||
Terrebonne | June 6, 2018 | Michel Boudrias | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus following the resignation of party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Mirabel | June 6, 2018 | Simon Marcil | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus following the resignation of party leader Martine Ouellet | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Outremont | August 3, 2018 | Thomas Mulcair | █ New Democratic | Resigned | February 25, 2019 | Rachel Bendayan | █ Liberal |
Beauce | August 23, 2018 | Maxime Bernier | █ Conservative | Resigned from the Conservative caucus, and changed affiliation to newly created People's Party | September 14, 2018 | █ People's | |
Rivière-du-Nord | September 17, 2018 | Rhéal Fortin | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Repentigny | September 17, 2018 | Monique Pauzé | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel | September 17, 2018 | Louis Plamondon | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Joliette | September 17, 2018 | Gabriel Ste-Marie | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Montcalm | September 17, 2018 | Luc Thériault | █ Groupe parl qué | Rejoined the Bloc Québécois caucus | █ Bloc Québécois | ||
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | January 29, 2019 | Nicola Di Iorio | █ Liberal | Resigned | █ Vacant | ||
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | August 16, 2019 | Pierre Nantel | █ New Democratic | Expelled from NDP caucus following revelations that he had been in private talks to run for another political party in the next general election | █ Independent[b] |
Opinion polling
[edit]

Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GPC | PPC[1] | Other | Margin of error[c] |
Sample size[d] |
Polling method[e] | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 election | October 21, 2019 | [2] | 34.2 | 16.0 | 10.7 | 32.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | — | 4,284,338 | — | 1.7 |
Leger | October 15, 2019 | [3] | 31 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 6 | 2 | - | ±1.79 | 3000 | Online | 0 |
Forum Research | October 12, 2019 | [4] | 33 | 15 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | ±3 pp | 1001 | IVR | 2 |
Leger | October 10, 2019 | [5] | 31 | 16 | 13 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | - | 1014 | Online | 2 |
Mainstreet Research | October 6, 2019 | [6] | 35 | 17 | 11 | 27 | 7 | 3 | - | ±3.75 pp | 685 | IVR | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | September 30, 2019 | [7] | 37 | 18 | 10 | 22 | 9 | 3 | - | ±3.7 pp | 694 | IVR | 15 |
Nanos Research | September 30, 2019 | [8] | 35.3 | 17.0 | 13.3 | 22.0 | 10.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | ±3.6 pp | 828 | telephone | 13.3 |
Leger | September 17, 2019 | [9] | 36 | 21 | 7 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 1 | ±3.9 pp | 837 | Online | 14 |
Mainstreet Research | September 13, 2019 | [10] | 33.0 | 24.8 | 7.9 | 18.6 | 9.5 | - | - | unknown | unknown | IVR | 8.2 |
Leger | August 29, 2019 | [11] | 34 | 23 | 7 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ±3.39 pp | 837 | Online | 11 |
Forum Research | August 28, 2019 | [12] | 37 | 21 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1219 | IVR | 16 | |
Forum Research | July 24, 2019 | [13] | 30 | 28 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 3 | ±3 pp | 977 | IVR | 2 |
Forum Research | June 12, 2019 | [14] | 32 | 25 | 9 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 2 | ±3 pp | 1,471 | IVR | 7 |
Leger | March 11, 2019 | [15] | 35 | 26 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 4 | ±3.08 pp | 1,014 | Online | 9 | |
Leger | January 28, 2019 | [16] | 39 | 21 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 6 | ±3.09 pp | 1,007 | Online | 18 | |
CROP | June 19, 2018 | [17] | 42 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 0 | — | 1,000 | Online | 15 | |
Leger | August 24, 2017 | [18] | 43 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 6 | 2 | ±3 pp | 1,002 | Online | 27 | |
2015 election | October 19, 2015 | [19] | 35.7 | 16.7 | 25.4 | 19.4 | 2.2 | — | 0.7 | — | 4,241,487 | — | 19 |
Predictions
[edit]Campaign
[edit]On August 9, André Parizeau, Bloc candidate for Ahuntsic-Cartierville, created attention over his past communist affiliations as Leader of the Parti communiste du Québec (PCQ).[20] Parizeau disavowed the PCQ in order to be accepted as candidate.[21]
On October 2, a man in Montreal, Quebec, told Jagmeet Singh NDP leader to cut off his turban to look more Canadian during a campaign stop. Singh replied that Canadians "look like all sorts of people" before walking off.[22][23]
In October, the Bloc Québécois called on Quebeckers to vote for candidates "who resemble you" (" des gens qui nous ressemblent ") in the election, prompting NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to denounce the message as unacceptable and divisive. In his closing statement during Wednesday's French-language debate, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet called on voters to "opt for men and women who resemble you, who share your values, who share your concerns and who work for your interests, and only for the interests of Quebeckers." The Bloc has said the comment has nothing to do with someone's background or religion but with Québécois values.[24][25][26][27] During the English debate, Blanchet called the translation of his words dishonest and mentioned that the same words were used by Igniatieff in 2011 and Mulcair in 2015.[28]
On October 10, Le Journal de Montréal discovered that four BQ candidates had made anti-Islam and racist social media posts.[29][30] A Bloc spokeswoman said it was up to Quebeckers to judge its candidates' social-media posts.[30] The comments were condemned by Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh, Mélanie Joly and Françoise David.[31] Later, the candidates all posted the same apology on their respective social media accounts and Yves-François Blanchet apologized for his candidates' Islamophobic and racist social media posts.[32][33]
On October 13, Blanchet announced that they will not support a coalition or a party in a minority scenario. The Bloc will go issue by issue and support what is best for Quebec.[34][35]
Law 21 was debated in the 2019 federal election. Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet stated this was a provincial matter and not relevant to the federal government's jurisdiction but did campaign in favour of Law 21.[36] Although Trudeau initially spoke out against the idea of the bill in 2017, he did not take any actual action to prevent the bill from passing. During his election campaign in 2019, he avoided the topic as much as possible in order to maintain popularity in the polls within Quebec.[37] The consensus among the 2019 candidates was that the bill was a provincial issue and they would not pursue action at a federal level if elected. Including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh who would personally be affected by the bill while in Quebec.[38]
Premier of Quebec François Legault said Coalition Avenir Québec MNAs were not allowed to give out endorsements.[39]
Le Devoir done a Joint Liberal/BQ endorsement.[40]
Results
[edit]The NDP lost all but one of its seats in Quebec, it was suggested that Jagmeet Singh's Sikhism may have been negatively received by voters in the context of the Quebec ban on religious symbols.[41]
Summary
[edit]Party | Votes | Vote % | Vote +/- | Seats | Seat +/- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | 1,468,603 | ![]() |
35 / 78 (45%)
|
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Bloc Québécois | 1,387,030 | ![]() |
32 / 78 (41%)
|
![]() | ||
Conservative | 684,661 | ![]() |
10 / 78 (13%)
|
![]() | ||
New Democratic | 464,414 | ![]() |
1 / 78 (1%)
|
![]() | ||
Green | 193,420 | ![]() |
0 / 78 (0%)
|
![]() | ||
People's | 62,951 | ![]() |
0 / 78 (0%)
|
![]() | ||
Independent | 8,458 | pp | 0 / 78 (0%)
|
![]() | ||
Other | 14,801 | pp | 0 / 78 (0%)
|
![]() | ||
Total | 4,284,338 | – | 78 / 78 (100%)
|
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Comparison with national results
[edit]Party | Popular vote % | Seats in caucus | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
QC | Natl. avg. | diff. | |||
Liberal | 34.3 | 33.1 | +1.2 | 35 / 157 (22%)
| |
Bloc Québécois | 32.4 | 7.6 | +24.8 | 32 / 32 (100%)
| |
Conservative | 16.0 | 34.3 | -18.3 | 10 / 121 (8%)
| |
New Democratic | 10.8 | 16.0 | -5.2 | 1 / 24 (4%)
| |
Green | 4.5 | 6.5 | -2.0 | 0 / 3 (0%)
| |
People's | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.1 | no caucus | |
Total | – | – | – | 78 / 338 (23%)
|
Student vote results
[edit]Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[44]
Party | Leader | Seats | Popular vote | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elected | % | Δ | Votes | % | Δ (pp) | |||
Liberal | Justin Trudeau | 34 | 43.03 | ![]() |
30,170 | 27.65 | ![]() | |
New Democratic | Jagmeet Singh | 22 | 27.85 | ![]() |
26,440 | 24.23 | ![]() | |
Bloc Québécois | Yves-François Blanchet | 12 | 15.19 | ![]() |
16,181 | 14.83 | ![]() | |
Conservative | Andrew Scheer | 8 | 10.13 | ![]() |
11,110 | 10.18 | ![]() | |
Green | Elizabeth May | 3 | 3.80 | ![]() |
18,062 | 16.55 | ![]() | |
Other | 0 | 0 | ![]() |
4,051 | 3.71 | ![]() | ||
People's | Maxime Bernier | 0 | 0 | ![]() |
3,098 | 2.84 | ![]() | |
Total | 78 | 100.00 | ![]() |
109,112 | 100.00 | – | ||
Source: Student Vote Canada[45] |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Does not include Pierre Nantel, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
- ^ Sat as an independent for the remainder of his term, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
- ^ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
- ^ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
- ^ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
- ^ Does not include Pierre Nantel, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
- ^ Includes Pierre Nantel, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2019 election
- ^ 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament
References
[edit]- ^ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268003/federal-election-results-canada-quebec/
- ^ "poll".
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. October 15, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 11, 2020. Retrieved October 18, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Forum Research. October 12, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. October 10, 2019.
- ^ "poll". Mainstreet Research. October 6, 2019.
- ^ "poll". Mainstreet Research. September 30, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. September 30, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
- ^ "poll". Leger. September 17, 2019.
- ^ "poll". Mainstreet Research. September 13, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. August 29, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2019. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
- ^ "poll". Forum Research. August 28, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Forum Research. July 24, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Forum Research. June 12, 2019.
- ^ "poll". Leger. March 11, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. January 28, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 7, 2020. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). CROP. June 19, 2018.
- ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. August 24, 2017.
- ^ "poll".
- ^ Lévesque, Catherine (August 9, 2019). "André Parizeau will be Bloc candidate in Ahuntsic-Cartierville". The Gazette. Montreal. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
- ^ Paré, Étienne (August 16, 2019), L'ancien chef du Parti communiste sera finalement candidat pour le Bloc (in French), Montreal, archived from the original on July 6, 2021, retrieved September 12, 2019
{{citation}}
: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link) - ^ "Jagmeet Singh: 'Cut your turban off,' voter tells NDP leader". BBC. The Canadian Press. October 2, 2019. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
- ^ "Jagmeet Singh challenges man who urged him to 'cut off' his turban". CBC News. October 2, 2019. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
- ^ Ballingall, Alex (October 3, 2019). "Bloc Québécois blasted for urging voters to support candidates 'qui vous ressemblent'". The Star. Ottawa. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
- ^ Lum, Zi-Ann (October 3, 2019). "Bloc Quebecois Defends Asking Voters To Pick Politicians That 'Resemble You'". HuffPost. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
- ^ Leblanc, Daniel (October 3, 2019). "Bloc Québécois urges Quebeckers to elect MPs 'who resemble you'". The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
- ^ Carbasse, Mathieu (October 3, 2019). "Jour 23 : Trudeau et Scheer prolongent le débat". L’actualité (in Canadian French). Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 5, 2019.
- ^ Federal Leaders' Debate 2019, CBC News, October 7, 2019, event occurs at 40:48, archived from the original on July 6, 2021, retrieved October 10, 2019
- ^ Nardi, Christopher (October 10, 2019). "Propos anti-islam: des candidats du Bloc embarrassants". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
- ^ a b Leblanc, Daniel (October 9, 2019). "Bloc says up to Quebeckers to judge its candidates' social-media posts". The Globe and Mail. Ottawa. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
- ^ Laframboise, Kalina (October 10, 2019). "Bloc Québécois leader issues apology over candidates' social media posts". Global News. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
- ^ Boshra, Basem (October 10, 2019). "Bloc leader apologizes for 'inappropriate' social media posts by party candidates". CTV News. Montreal. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
- ^ MacFarlane, John (October 10, 2019). "Bloc leader apologizes for candidates' Islamophobic and racist social media posts". CBC News. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2019.
- ^ Ménard, Marc-Antoine (October 13, 2019). "Le Bloc québécois ne participera à aucune coalition | Élections Canada 2019" (in Canadian French). CBC/Radio-Canada. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
- ^ "Bloc: Blanchet exclut à nouveau toute alliance". La Presse (in French). October 13, 2019. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
- ^ "Bloc Quebecois leader Blanchet says secularism, Bill 21 shouldn't be campaign issue". Global News. October 8, 2019. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
- ^ Zimonjic, Peter (December 13, 2021). "Trudeau says he won't step into Bill 21 debate to avoid triggering jurisdictional spat with Quebec". CBC News.
- ^ Rabson, Mia (October 8, 2019). "Singh's stance on Bill 21 called out by anti-hate group". Federal Election 2019. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
- ^ Authier, Philip (September 4, 2019). "CAQ MNAs not allowed to take sides in federal election: Quebec premier". The Gazette. Montreal. Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2019.
- ^ Myles, Brian (October 19, 2019). "Un Bloc fort dans un Canada libéral" [[We support] A strong Bloc [= Bloc Québécois] in a liberal Canada]. Le Devoir (in French). Archived from the original on July 6, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2019.
- ^ "Was Jagmeet Singh's race a factor in NDP loss in Quebec? Tough to tell, say Vancouver observers". The Georgia Straight. October 24, 2019. Archived from the original on December 17, 2019. Retrieved January 2, 2020.
- ^ "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on April 28, 2025. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
- ^ "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on April 28, 2025. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
- ^ https://studentvote.ca/canada/
- ^ https://studentvote.ca/results/provincial_results/33/2